# Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 3 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/al-fateh-saudi-club-vs-al-khaleej-saudi-club
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.062Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $219

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 12¢ | ±0 | $152 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-b-kalshi-kxabrahamsa-27-jan01 |
| During Trump's term | 53¢ | −1pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-b-kalshi-kxabrahamsa-29-jan20 |
| Any Saudi Pro League Club | 50¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-mohamed-salah-go-next-any-saudi-pro-lea-kalshi-kxjoinleague-26oct02msalah-saudi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 44 |
| 2026-06-12 | 37 |
| 2026-06-19 | 41 |
| 2026-06-26 | 52 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Any Saudi Pro League Club −7pp 60→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Saudi Arabia −4pp 12→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Saudi Arabia +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Saudi Arabia +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Any Saudi Pro League Club −3pp 53→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Al Fateh will win their upcoming match against Al Khaleej in the Saudi Pro League. The 38% mid-point reflects moderate uncertainty, with a 7-percentage-point split between Kalshi (42%) and Polymarket (35%) suggesting traders weight different information about team form, recent performance, and home-field advantage differently. The probability would shift upward if Al Fateh's recent results improve or key players return from injury, and downward if Al Khaleej enters as favorites based on current standings or head-to-head records. The match itself will serve as the resolution event, making pre-game team news and lineup confirmation the primary catalysts for probability movement in the days before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Al Fateh's current league position and recent win-loss record compared to Al Khaleej
- Historical head-to-head performance between the two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Injury status and player availability for both teams entering the match
- Home-versus-away designation and venue advantage for this fixture
- Betting market divergence (7pp gap) suggests material disagreement on underlying team strength or match conditions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=al-fateh-saudi-club-vs-al-khaleej-saudi-club

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