# Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 14 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/al-najmah-saudi-club-vs-al-taawoun-saudi-club
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.356Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 51% / Polymarket 32% — 19pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 13¢ | −1pp | $311 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0xaec9b992e0d877c321c7789af5d6fb64ad5e339714fb1000e1e97bf14159ea1a |
| Saudi Arabia | 4¢ | ±0 | $311 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30-s-polymarket-0xc806bda841f56b4343b6af7b3cde2288cfd0fdd325aeaef7bedce847ea77d075 |
| Spain | 82¢ | ±0 | $228 | kalshi | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-winner-spain-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun21espksa-esp |
| Uruguay | 66¢ | +1pp | $171 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-uruguay-polymarket-0xbc54d73527785bdc7b443cfdf3b0d59558c5ac2bbffca23425ecfbd161b07317 |
| Any Saudi Pro League Club | 60¢ | +5pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-mohamed-salah-go-next-any-saudi-pro-lea-kalshi-kxjoinleague-26oct02msalah-saudi |
| Saudi Arabia | 17¢ | ±0 | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-b-kalshi-kxabrahamsa-27-jan01 |
| During Trump's term | 43¢ | −3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-b-kalshi-kxabrahamsa-29-jan20 |
| Saudi Arabia | 9¢ | −1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0x3abd1b7cf1488504d51a36c1e3f944597dfe6e0545a6fd34ef3d4a3746f90e59 |
| Spain | 86¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-spain-polymarket-0x2fcf3968f5feff8c544b1be614f1c7aed22f5051949478bc0b39f9e966cab02a |
| Draw (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia) | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-draw-spain-vs-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0x55aa84891f31cedeaef953dfabbb56214ed9549f2ca3ddfe10d395bc58def557 |
| Saudi Arabia | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0xff3744285965810d599d4ac7037760134c349eab25c289c14ba2523320debda7 |
| Cabo Verde | 38¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-cabo-verde-polymarket-0xe949e3949780dfce68fc24136bb3f79e5e1ad94d0001079ee26f6b474d77d355 |
| Draw (Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia) | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cabo-verde-vs-saudi-arabia-draw-cabo-verde-vs-saud-polymarket-0x187651dbb617ad61b8c3342a4a61996273a6a206ff36405c37c5cf029c2f96bb |
| Draw (Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay) | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-draw-saudi-arabia-vs-urugu-polymarket-0x344327632a0ab1c28b40003f14bfe75cb7d5bd65c58b4e34199cfc17a77104fe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-08 | 15 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Spain vs. Saudi Arabia) −6pp 17→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Any Saudi Pro League Club +5pp 50→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Spain +5pp 82→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Any Saudi Pro League Club +3pp 47→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Saudi Arabia −3pp 21→18¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/al-najmah-saudi-club-vs-al-taawoun-saudi-club
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=al-najmah-saudi-club-vs-al-taawoun-saudi-club

## License

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