# Alabama Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-18T07:20:20.503Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Kyle Sweetser at 91%
- Runner-up: Dakarai Larriett at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Sweetser | 91¢ | +16pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner-kyle-swee-polymarket-0xa4eed684bdfa42fef3fa9e11bf11666c1eea4cbfb11ab7951ec49891341619c9 |
| Dakarai Larriett | 8¢ | −16pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner-dakarai-l-polymarket-0x58b3694d040e4daee5afcb3123e369664f4e472906f53586c3e70bbca8ef9042 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kyle Sweetser | Dakarai Larriett |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 17 | 20 |
| 2026-06-04 | 5 | 10 |
| 2026-06-05 | 5 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 2 | 10 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 18 | 33 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 17 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · Dakarai Larriett +25pp 8→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Kyle Sweetser +16pp 2→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Dakarai Larriett −16pp 33→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 32% probability represents traders' aggregate assessment that a specific Alabama Democratic Senate candidate will win their party's primary election. This probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning, voter preferences, and whether a clear frontrunner has emerged in the state's Democratic primary landscape. The main factors driving this level include the number and strength of competing candidates, recent polling data, and fundraising performance. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, determining which candidate advances to the general election. Between now and the primary, candidate endorsements, debate performances, and ground organization developments will likely shift market expectations.

### Key factors

- Number of competing Democratic candidates and whether a consensus frontrunner has consolidated support
- Recent polling data showing vote share distribution among Democratic primary voters
- Candidate fundraising totals and spending levels relative to competitors
- Whether a major endorsement or organizational backing has shifted in favor of one candidate
- Historical turnout patterns in Alabama Democratic primaries and demographic composition of likely voters

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alabama-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.