# Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-governor-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T11:35:22.505Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $114

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Tuberville | 97¢ | −1pp | $114 | polymarket | /markets/alabama-governor-republican-primary-winner-tommy-t-polymarket-0x17d4a9e400f9a58eb27ab5ba584547401b5182c8f11f2243c98d083dfa1a424f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 100 |
| 2026-04-25 | 96 |
| 2026-05-02 | 98 |
| 2026-05-08 | 99 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 46% probability reflects the likelihood that a Republican candidate will win Alabama's gubernatorial primary. The current assessment suggests the race remains genuinely competitive rather than dominated by a clear frontrunner. Primary participation rates, candidate name recognition, and fundraising totals among declared or likely candidates will influence whether this probability shifts materially. The specific primary date and any major candidate announcements or withdrawals in coming months could significantly alter expectations. Polling data from Alabama voters, when available, and turnout patterns in similar Republican primaries will be critical to resolving uncertainty around the eventual Republican nominee.

### Key factors

- Current field composition and whether additional major candidates announce their candidacy before filing deadlines
- Fundraising totals and campaign infrastructure development among leading Republican contenders
- Historical turnout and demographic patterns in Alabama Republican primaries compared to general election modeling
- Any significant polling releases showing candidate preference shifts among Alabama Republican voters
- Timing and outcome of early contests in other states, which could affect candidate viability and consolidation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-governor-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alabama-governor-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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