# Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-18T07:20:20.503Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Jared Hudson at 55%
- Runner-up: Barry Moore at 46%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Hudson | 55¢ | −10pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner-jared-hud-polymarket-0xb7674b49efd8501f6ebe0d49129c7ef29b0db69660d38752208165a5387966d2 |
| Barry Moore | 46¢ | +9pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner-barry-moo-polymarket-0x11d4960a26b0696cb8c854e409944e8a69fefba21c68554187f29615ff5d3457 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jared Hudson | Barry Moore |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 10 | 88 |
| 2026-06-05 | 25 | 74 |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 | 77 |
| 2026-06-17 | 12 | 87 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · Jared Hudson −10pp 22→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Barry Moore +9pp 78→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Barry Moore −5pp 83→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · Jared Hudson +4pp 18→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · Jared Hudson −3pp 23→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 41% probability reflects the estimated chance that a specific candidate wins Alabama's Republican Senate primary election. The outcome depends primarily on candidate name recognition, endorsements from state party leadership, and performance in polling among Alabama Republicans. Primary results typically correlate with candidate fundraising capacity, organizational strength in key regions, and whether establishment figures coalesce behind a single candidate. The primary election date itself will provide definitive resolution, replacing current uncertainty with actual vote tallies. Early indicators like debate participation, media coverage patterns, and internal campaign metrics shape expectations as the election approaches. Shifts in this probability would likely reflect new endorsements, fundraising disclosures, or changes in candidate participation in the race.

### Key factors

- Candidate endorsement patterns, particularly from Alabama GOP leadership and sitting federal officials, measurably shift betting odds in primary races
- Fundraising reports and cash-on-hand figures provide concrete data about candidate resources relative to competitors
- Candidate participation—whether leading contenders remain active or withdraw—directly alters the competitive field and probability distributions
- Polling data specific to Alabama Republican voters shows explicit preference rankings that correlate with market movements
- The scheduled primary election date represents the ultimate resolution point; timing affects how much uncertainty remains priced into current odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alabama-republican-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.