# Alaska Governor Election Winner

> Tom Begich leads at 31%, runner-up 25% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alaska-governor-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-11T11:20:50.941Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Begich at 31%
- Runner-up: Bernadette Wilson at 25%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 31¢ | +1pp | $556 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-tom-begich-polymarket-0xb120cb1c26ad4568844f8e7ee7a91487d5cf4d246fd40410c1f3d4061bfd3587 |
| Bernadette Wilson | 25¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-bernadette-wilson-polymarket-0x9aba5bf074182d803c1b6a10814497875562ebb1c62483b36d2a305fc49e0792 |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 16¢ | ±0 | $102 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-jonathan-kreiss-to-polymarket-0x43cedce4a6af0136d37d53408fc965388baee3145db6da72a5b5da8d2746ced3 |
| Bill Walker | 10¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-bill-walker-polymarket-0x1aaa09e9174c89de226b4ed98bbf3992bd0b7abd287a32dc9d495ad1b0e9f9b0 |
| Treg Taylor | 8¢ | ±0 | $73 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-treg-taylor-polymarket-0xbc9964ab2e4e4886796e86263769e34451476172200f99e378e74adc6e202663 |
| David Bronson | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-david-bronson-polymarket-0x8377be7973fda37582973f6533625ff035bd7ece986a9762d12b1cfb81baf057 |
| Click Bishop | 3¢ | +1pp | $52 | polymarket | /markets/alaska-governor-election-winner-click-bishop-polymarket-0xb2fddc90e11d6c55351bfbd5c01e67323f4d177f55f612274a90da92d1ae68db |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | — | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-16 | 38 | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 35 | 20 | 15 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 21 | 15 |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 26 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | — | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-05 | — | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-06 | 31 | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 31 | — | — |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · Bill Walker +4pp 5→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 23% probability reflects the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Alaska's gubernatorial election. The price is derived from aggregated trading across 19 contracts on Polymarket, representing the cumulative judgment of traders with financial stakes in the outcome. Alaska's election dynamics are shaped by voter demographics, incumbency status, and primary results that determine the general election field. The major catalyst ahead is the completion of primary elections and any shifts in candidate viability or name recognition as the campaign enters its final phase. Market pricing will adjust based on polling data, fundraising reports, campaign developments, and historical turnout patterns specific to Alaska's electorate.

### Key factors

- Primary election results and which candidates advance to the general election
- Incumbent advantage or disadvantage relative to challenger candidate(s)
- Polling data in Alaska showing head-to-head matchups and voter preference trends
- Campaign funding and spending levels indicating candidate resources and organizational strength
- Historical Alaska voter turnout patterns and demographic shifts affecting the likely electorate

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alaska-governor-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alaska-governor-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.