# Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election

> Nick Begich III leads at 50%, runner-up 38% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alaskahouse
Updated: 2026-07-14T08:20:51.479Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Nick Begich III at 50%
- Runner-up: Bill Hill at 38%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | 50¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaska-us-house-of-representatives-el-kalshi-kxalaskahouse-26-nbeg |
| Bill Hill | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaska-us-house-of-representatives-el-kalshi-kxalaskahouse-26-bhil |
| Matt Schultz | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaska-us-house-of-representatives-el-kalshi-kxalaskahouse-26-msch |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Nick Begich III | Bill Hill | Matt Schultz |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | — | — | 13 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 21 | 11 |
| 2026-06-23 | 66 | — | — |
| 2026-07-02 | — | 24 | 5 |
| 2026-07-07 | 47 | 39 | 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | 48 | 38 | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 51 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-07 · Nick Begich III −19pp 66→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · Bill Hill +15pp 24→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently assign a 65% probability to Nick Begich III winning Alaska's House seat, with Bill Hill at 21% and Matt Schultz at 8%. This reflects Begich's substantial lead in the race heading into the 2026 cycle. The pricing likely reflects name recognition from his 2022 Senate bid, fundraising performance, and recent polling if available. Key factors driving these probabilities include candidate fundraising totals, endorsement patterns from Alaska Republicans, and any recent polling data. The primary election results, if applicable, or early general election surveys would significantly move these odds. With $0 trading volume in the past 24 hours across all three contracts, the market for this race remains relatively inactive, suggesting limited recent information flow or trader engagement. The actual election outcome in November 2026 will ultimately determine whether these probabilities proved calibrated.

### Key factors

- Candidate fundraising records and cash-on-hand as reported in FEC filings
- Recent public polling showing candidate support levels among Alaska voters
- Primary election results if they occur before general election
- Endorsements from Alaska Republican leadership and national figures
- Voter registration trends and turnout patterns in Alaska's House districts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alaskahouse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alaskahouse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.