# Will Alberta join the US

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alberta-join-us
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.220Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $85K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | 4¢ | +1pp | $85K | polymarket | /markets/will-alberta-join-the-us-polymarket-0xf8e1b655885e0b49fc934c10672c13c68a3c19c895496326215d5f63293428a5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 10 |
| 2026-05-13 | 5 |
| 2026-05-21 | 3 |
| 2026-05-27 | 5 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market assessment of Alberta separating from Canada and joining the United States as a state or territory. At 4%, the market prices this as unlikely but not negligible. The low probability reflects several structural barriers: Alberta would require federal and provincial consent under international law, the U.S. would need to approve admission through Congress, and no formal political movement has achieved significant traction toward this outcome. Factors that could shift this probability include sustained economic divergence between Alberta and Canada, escalating political tensions over energy or fiscal policy, or explicit policy shifts from either the U.S. or Canadian federal governments. The nearest catalyst would be major shifts in Canadian-Alberta relations or U.S. immigration policy affecting provinces directly. Current market activity ($51,714 in 24-hour volume) suggests ongoing speculative interest despite the low base probability.

### Key factors

- No active political party or elected officials in Alberta with meaningful support for joining the U.S.; closest precedent is historical separatism movements which peaked in 1990s-2000s and have since declined
- Constitutional and legal barriers: Canadian federation requires federal consent for provincial secession; U.S. requires Congressional approval for new states, creating dual veto points
- Economic integration remains tighter with Canada than U.S.; Alberta trades significantly within North America but lacks independent trade authority to negotiate U.S. membership
- Recent political tensions (equalization payments, energy policy) have not translated into measurable support for secession in polling data
- Any institutional change would require sustained political momentum over years, not months, with no scheduled referendum, vote, or formal process currently underway

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alberta-join-us
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alberta-join-us

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.