# Albirex Niigata vs. Kamatamare Sanuki

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-kamatamare-sanuki
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:22.226Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa9a0068043b8f70080dad1cbc72d232ee9b5278c21d12cbe3171107996419c94 |
| Kataller Toyama (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa18b4aeaa1b53e7d32e9fb7c48098547da2808cc3e72e8a48824b4fd2cd09f97 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x881f458b76b6d561d43503c7cd0869a8463961c1787a43e52fbd1a62614fdeb3 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xd108598c1ea2939d8259c617ee6673d2e2fed06854c85b27ae25acd6fedf62db |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x7056f531d96671721afb19c5a038b9d973f574c79db67cf4d81f5a6b9448f07f |
| Albirex Niigata | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-albirex-niigat-polymarket-0xa0a31c22b636cde8cc370009598c17c2acb3d7fc25936947e478f86c2ebc2bc7 |
| Tokushima Vortis | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-tokushima-vort-polymarket-0xb3a05a7a79c81086ea1ddfeb9b66b33e2dbfb37dbcab7f62fee6719d878867d6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x168e563b2d4c7b1f468a99b54ea7449119ed44b9919b3e54941b2dbc316af6b6 |
| Albirex Niigata (-2.5) | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x1e0203e082534575b22b1221ff01580a2192de3b6e2793a23e3c0834a1f4ea73 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) | 35¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x082d3e01da8d253e5a272d4cd3690c1011213f63ab17c56889157506f1b09b88 |
| O/U 3.5 | 37¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbeb972cf90358d08f200c25ff50f2f3225fe237c9ff42e009bbda7f0007d3a3f |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-b-polymarket-0xc21a6231f9cc16b116b4c05980abb57d62a92f0e6cb6b222f23ee635556b0eea |
| Kataller Toyama (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa0c83bf391689cbf2fc8d3ad23a5796325c0208db0cd0105f360029a80332708 |
| Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) | 30¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-t-polymarket-0x7eb8e51f44055078bfd4bfccc6e27c7141dfebcc3f3649b80febdf8ce6b1c63f |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbff960fc7e0fe897b517ec4a6667af206dd5c051cac189c81658b47eaca78b67 |
| Kataller Toyama | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-kataller-toya-polymarket-0x5261c5f1e660386369447ac4038da9e607a77c60bcfc1b51a0266a804e60e1bc |
| Draw (Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-draw-kataller-polymarket-0x8f340f850f574528867aa136e288e6561722234fd71d8cbe2c6ba016cecc1ee8 |
| Draw (Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-draw-albirex-n-polymarket-0x263600b119586d1efbd3eab3947384a3e05b2289436896763b90babed45590e2 |
| Albirex Niigata (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x01a64b6d8d860e39580fed23501e7b0bb25b7485c28469ceddd67860f9459a7e |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0x487003b2e76ea36e00d19dcba6a1aee382087a80290c4b63b9459cc40c9c01fe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kamatamare Sanuki (-2.5) +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kataller Toyama (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 29→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 41% probability represents the market's assessment that Albirex Niigata will defeat Kamatamare Sanuki in an upcoming J2 League match. The current level reflects Albirex Niigata's stronger recent form and higher league standing relative to Kamatamare Sanuki, balanced against the uncertainty inherent in any single match outcome. The probability could shift based on team news, injury updates, or recent performance trends in the days leading up to kickoff. The match result itself will provide definitive resolution, making pre-match team sheets and line-up confirmations critical information points. Current contract liquidity is minimal across related markets, suggesting limited trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Albirex Niigata's current league position and win percentage versus Kamatamare Sanuki's comparative standing in the J2 League table
- Recent head-to-head records between these two clubs and performance trends in their last 5-10 matches
- Confirmed player availability, injury reports, and lineup changes announced in the 24-48 hours before match kickoff
- Home-field advantage and recent home/away performance splits for both teams
- Low contract volume ($0 24h) across related markets, indicating potential pricing inefficiency or low market confidence in contract reliability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-kamatamare-sanuki
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albirex-niigata-vs-kamatamare-sanuki

## License

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