# Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 71%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 55%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x1c95fd7c7cd5714466bec2cd499bfa3f162788f22f6740967e427b027a79fbab |
| Both Teams to Score | 55¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-b-polymarket-0xc21a6231f9cc16b116b4c05980abb57d62a92f0e6cb6b222f23ee635556b0eea |
| O/U 2.5 | 43¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x168e563b2d4c7b1f468a99b54ea7449119ed44b9919b3e54941b2dbc316af6b6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbeb972cf90358d08f200c25ff50f2f3225fe237c9ff42e009bbda7f0007d3a3f |
| Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) | 18¢ | −22pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-t-polymarket-0x7eb8e51f44055078bfd4bfccc6e27c7141dfebcc3f3649b80febdf8ce6b1c63f |
| Albirex Niigata (-1.5) | 12¢ | −21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x01a64b6d8d860e39580fed23501e7b0bb25b7485c28469ceddd67860f9459a7e |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | −23pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xbff960fc7e0fe897b517ec4a6667af206dd5c051cac189c81658b47eaca78b67 |
| Tokushima Vortis (-2.5) | 6¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-t-polymarket-0x5dd98abbcdca22c36520946957af932eb46e9ab5f3ec03a717ebb7da30e438d8 |
| Albirex Niigata (-2.5) | 4¢ | −24pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets-a-polymarket-0x1e0203e082534575b22b1221ff01580a2192de3b6e2793a23e3c0834a1f4ea73 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 63 | 48 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 49 | 50 |
| 2026-05-06 | 63 | 48 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Albirex Niigata (-2.5) −24pp 34→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −24pp 41→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −23pp 34→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Tokushima Vortis (-1.5) −22pp 38→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Albirex Niigata (-1.5) −21pp 41→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market indicates a 37% probability that the Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis match will feature more than the projected number of goals or goals+cards combined. The probability reflects typical offensive output expectations for a J-League fixture between these teams, influenced by their recent form, head-to-head tendencies, and defensive capabilities. The main factors driving this level are each team's scoring average and defensive record in recent matches, which establish a baseline expectation for total market action. The match result itself—scheduled for a specific date in the J-League season—will provide definitive resolution, as actual totals will either exceed or fall short of the threshold. Market participants are pricing in a more likely scenario of fewer total outcomes than the 'more' threshold, suggesting current defensive form or lower-scoring trends between these opponents.

### Key factors

- Albirex Niigata's offensive output over the last 5-10 J-League matches compared to the historical average for this matchup
- Tokushima Vortis' defensive record and goals-conceded rate in recent fixtures
- Head-to-head historical trends between the two teams showing typical goal-scoring patterns
- Injury status or recent tactical changes for key attacking or defensive players on either side
- Weather conditions or scheduling factors (if applicable) that could affect match tempo and total scoring

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-more-markets

## License

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