# Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis

> Albirex Niigata leads at 51%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:56.384Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Albirex Niigata at 51%
- Runner-up: Tokushima Vortis at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-albirex-niigat-polymarket-0xa0a31c22b636cde8cc370009598c17c2acb3d7fc25936947e478f86c2ebc2bc7 |
| Tokushima Vortis | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-tokushima-vort-polymarket-0xb3a05a7a79c81086ea1ddfeb9b66b33e2dbfb37dbcab7f62fee6719d878867d6 |
| Draw (Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis-draw-albirex-n-polymarket-0x263600b119586d1efbd3eab3947384a3e05b2289436896763b90babed45590e2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Albirex Niigata | Tokushima Vortis | Draw (Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 40 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | — | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Albirex Niigata +3pp 46→49¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 43% probability reflects market expectations that Albirex Niigata will win their J2 League match against Tokushima Vortis. The pricing suggests a relatively competitive matchup with meaningful uncertainty. Albirex's recent form, home/away status, and squad availability will influence the outcome, while Tokushima's defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency could determine whether the lower-seeded team pulls off an upset. The match result will be determined on the scheduled fixture date, with resolution dependent on the final scoreline and any applicable league rules. Wider market contracts pricing draws at 39¢ and total goals markets suggest bettors expect a close, possibly low-scoring affair with genuine upset potential.

### Key factors

- Albirex's current league position and recent win/loss record compared to Tokushima's performance trajectory in the 2026 J2 League season
- Head-to-head historical matchup records and goal differential in previous encounters between these clubs
- Squad availability including injuries to key forwards, defenders, or midfield playmakers on either side
- Home venue advantage if applicable, combined with each team's home/away record split for the season
- Tokushima's defensive record and Albirex's conversion efficiency, which would predict whether the under-2.5 and under-1.5 goal markets reflect realistic scoring patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albirex-niigata-vs-tokushima-vortis

## License

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