# Will Noah Kahan's 'The Great Divide' debut at #1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 69% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumdebut
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.704Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Probability: 69% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEMAN | 95¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-drakes-iceman-debut-at-1-iceman-kalshi-kxalbumdebut-26may30-ice |
| BROWN | 17¢ | +2pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-browns-brown-debut-at-1-brown-kalshi-kxalbumdebut-26may23-bro |
| you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 95¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-rodrigos-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-gir-kalshi-kxalbumdebut-26jun27-you |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 90 |
| 2026-04-25 | 93 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 |
| 2026-05-09 | 18 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · BROWN +34pp 5→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · BROWN −18pp 34→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · BROWN −5pp 39→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · BROWN +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumdebut
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albumdebut

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.