# Will Noah Kahan have above 150000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during April 24, 2026 - April 30, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 18 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumequiv
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.091Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 100K | 35¢ | +5pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-daughter-from-hell-by-gracie-abrams-have-abov-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dau26jul23-100k |
| Above 25K | 5¢ | −2pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/will-dirty-blonde-by-bebe-rexha-have-above-25000-a-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dir26jun18-25k |
| Above 150K | 46¢ | ±0 | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-daughter-from-hell-by-gracie-abrams-have-abov-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dau26jul23b-150k |
| Above 300K | 45¢ | +2pp | $189 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-300000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-pet26aug06-300k |
| Above 400K | 10¢ | −4pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-by-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-you26jun18-400k |
| Above 450K | 12¢ | +2pp | $147 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-by-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-you26jun18-450k |
| Above 170K | 97¢ | +16pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-daughter-from-hell-by-gracie-abrams-have-abov-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dau26jul23-170k |
| Above 250K | 65¢ | −1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-250000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-pet26aug06-250k |
| Above 3K | 70¢ | +1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-cry-baby-by-vince-staples-have-above-3000-alb-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-cry26jun11-3k |
| Above 6K | 70¢ | +8pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-cry-baby-by-vince-staples-have-above-6000-alb-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-cry26jun11-6k |
| Above 25K | 91¢ | +7pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-do-that-again-by-malcolm-todd-have-above-2500-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dot26jun11-25k |
| Above 125K | 9¢ | +1pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-visitor-deluxe-by-sienna-spiro-have-above-125-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-vis26jul09-125k |
| Above 950K | 5¢ | −1pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-950000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-pet26aug06-950k |
| Above 350K | 32¢ | +1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-350000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-pet26aug06-350k |
| Above 75K | 64¢ | +2pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-daughter-from-hell-by-gracie-abrams-have-abov-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-dau26jul23-75k |
| Above 21K | 3¢ | ±0 | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-cry-baby-by-vince-staples-have-above-21000-al-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-cry26jun11-21k |
| Above 80K | 4¢ | −1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitch-by-lizzo-have-above-80000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-bit26jun11-80k |
| Above 30K | 21¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitch-by-lizzo-have-above-30000-album-equival-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-bit26jun11-30k |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 46 |
| 2026-05-25 | 39 |
| 2026-06-01 | 46 |
| 2026-06-08 | 32 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Above 6K −82pp 83→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 3K −43pp 93→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 6K +42pp 1→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 400K −31pp 43→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Above 400K +19pp 29→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 67% chance that Noah Kahan accumulated more than 150,000 Album Equivalent Units (AEUs) on Luminate during the final week of April 2026. AEUs combine streaming plays, downloads, and physical sales into a single metric used by the music industry to measure commercial performance. The prediction sits relatively high, suggesting analysts expect Kahan to maintain substantial streaming and sales activity during that period. Key factors influencing this estimate include his current chart momentum, recent release schedule, and typical listener engagement patterns. Luminate publishes weekly AEU data with a lag, meaning the precise figure for April 24-30 will become verifiable once officially released, resolving all uncertainty around this specific week's performance. The current probability may shift based on any streaming trends, promotional activities, or competitive releases during that timeframe.

### Key factors

- Noah Kahan's streaming volume and listener base as of early May 2026, which determines if 150K AEUs is consistent with recent weekly performance
- The release schedule and competitive landscape in late April 2026—new major releases or promotional campaigns could significantly impact his AEU count
- Historical weekly AEU data for Kahan from prior weeks, establishing whether 150K represents typical output or an above-average threshold
- Luminate's official publication of April 24-30 AEU figures, which will provide definitive resolution without interpretation
- Any significant charting or streaming milestones Kahan achieved in May that would retroactively confirm or contradict the high probability estimate

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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