# How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be

> At least 25 minutes leads at 88%, runner-up 87% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumlength
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.901Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: At least 25 minutes at 88%
- Runner-up: At least 30 minutes at 87%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 25 minutes | 88¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-25 |
| At least 30 minutes | 87¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-30 |
| At least 35 minutes | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-35 |
| At least 40 minutes | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-40 |
| At least 45 minutes | 15¢ | −1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-45 |
| At least 65 minutes | 7¢ | +6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/how-long-will-ariana-grandes-album-petal-be-at-lea-kalshi-kxalbumlength-26dec30-pet-65 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 25 minutes | At least 30 minutes | At least 35 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 90 | 73 |
| 2026-05-28 | 88 | 92 | 74 |
| 2026-06-11 | 88 | 86 | 70 |
| 2026-06-19 | 90 | 88 | 70 |
| 2026-06-26 | 88 | 86 | 75 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · At least 35 minutes +73pp 2→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · At least 35 minutes −48pp 50→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · At least 40 minutes +40pp 2→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · At least 40 minutes −29pp 31→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · At least 35 minutes −20pp 70→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 60% probability reflects market consensus that Drake's upcoming album 'Iceman' will meet a specific length threshold, though the exact threshold varies across contracts. The probability distribution shows traders view the album as likely to exceed 65 minutes (69¢) but remain uncertain whether it reaches 100 minutes (18¢), suggesting expected length around 70-85 minutes. Album length depends on Drake's creative decisions and studio output, influenced by factors like the number of tracks, average song duration, and any deluxe or extended editions. Resolution occurs when the album officially releases and streaming platforms or official sources confirm its total runtime. Market activity of $90-120 daily volume on the primary contracts indicates moderate trader interest in this metric.

### Key factors

- Official release date and announced tracklist will establish exact runtime; delays or format changes would shift probability
- Drake's typical album length pattern—recent albums range 45-90 minutes—anchors trader expectations around this historical baseline
- Presence or absence of bonus tracks, skits, or interludes significantly affects total duration and represents a key unknown variable
- Preliminary leaks or studio session reports could alter probability if they indicate unexpectedly long or short project length
- Contract pricing spread (18¢ to 95¢ across thresholds) reflects genuine disagreement about whether album will exceed 100 minutes versus staying under 75 minutes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumlength
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albumlength

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.