# Will Justin Bieber release SWAG 3 before Jun 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumreleasedatejb
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.418Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before October | 4¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-release-swag-3-before-oct-1-202-kalshi-kxalbumreleasedatejb-swag3-oct01-26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 6 |
| 2026-06-27 | 5 |
| 2026-07-04 | 5 |
| 2026-07-12 | 4 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability measures whether Justin Bieber will release an album or project titled SWAG 3 before June 1, 2026. The current 6% probability reflects the high baseline uncertainty around any specific artist release date, combined with the fact that no official announcement of such a project has been made. The main factors influencing this estimate are the lack of any public statements or roadmap from Bieber or his label regarding a SWAG 3 release, and the relatively short timeframe remaining. Any official announcement, social media teaser, or label statement about an imminent SWAG 3 release would substantially increase the probability, while the approach of June 1 without such signals would effectively close out this particular deadline.

### Key factors

- No official announcement or confirmation of a SWAG 3 project has been made as of the current date
- Only 10 days remain until the June 1, 2026 deadline, severely limiting time for production and marketing typically required for album releases
- Historical release patterns for major artists typically involve advance announcements and promotional campaigns weeks or months before release dates
- The existence of prior SWAG releases in Bieber's catalog would be required context for assessing likelihood of a third installment
- Any label or artist social media activity specifically mentioning or teasing SWAG 3 would serve as a direct indicator of imminent release intent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumreleasedatejb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albumreleasedatejb

## License

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