# Will The Great Divide have at least 190,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of The Great Divide

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 68% across 10 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumsales
Updated: 2026-06-08T11:20:08.561Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Probability: 68% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $911

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 350,000 | 61¢ | −2pp | $402 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-hav-kalshi-kxalbumsales-yous-act-350000 |
| At least 40,000 albums | 76¢ | +4pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinner-party-have-at-least-40000-pure-album-s-kalshi-kxalbumsales-din-pure-40000 |
| At least 200,000 albums | 57¢ | +1pp | $131 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-hav-kalshi-kxalbumsales-yous-pure-200000 |
| At least 30,000 albums | 84¢ | +12pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinner-party-have-at-least-30000-pure-album-s-kalshi-kxalbumsales-din-pure-30000 |
| At least 225,000 albums | 44¢ | −3pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-hav-kalshi-kxalbumsales-yous-pure-225000 |
| At least 250,000 albums | 34¢ | −3pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-hav-kalshi-kxalbumsales-yous-pure-250000 |
| At least 150,000 albums | 84¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-you-seem-pretty-sad-for-a-girl-so-in-love-hav-kalshi-kxalbumsales-yous-pure-150000 |
| At least 30,000 | 76¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinner-party-have-at-least-30000-activity-com-kalshi-kxalbumsales-din-act-30000 |
| At least 20,000 albums | 81¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinner-party-have-at-least-20000-pure-album-s-kalshi-kxalbumsales-din-pure-20000 |
| At least 20,000 | 81¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dinner-party-have-at-least-20000-activity-com-kalshi-kxalbumsales-din-act-20000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 62 |
| 2026-05-25 | 63 |
| 2026-06-01 | 60 |
| 2026-06-08 | 66 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · At least 30,000 albums +12pp 67→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · At least 30,000 albums +10pp 57→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · At least 20,000 albums +9pp 65→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · At least 350,000 +7pp 64→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · At least 20,000 albums +7pp 74→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market predicts whether 'The Great Divide' will achieve at least 190,000 pure album sales in its debut week on the Hits Daily Double chart following its wide release. The current 43% probability reflects uncertainty about the album's commercial performance. Key drivers include the artist's existing fanbase size and streaming momentum leading into release week, as well as the competitive landscape for new album releases during that period. The probability will be resolved the week after the wide release when Hits Daily Double publishes official sales data. Comparable recent releases and pre-order numbers would provide early indicators of whether this threshold is realistic. The market essentially weighs whether this represents a major commercial success or a more moderate performance relative to recent industry benchmarks.

### Key factors

- Pre-order volume and streaming performance in the weeks leading up to wide release
- Size and engagement level of the artist's existing fanbase based on prior release performance
- Chart competition and release timing—whether major competing albums launch the same week
- Historical sales data for similar artists or prior releases from this artist
- Promotional intensity and marketing spend allocated to the release week

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumsales
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albumsales

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.