# Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than WILD by KATSEYE on Luminate during the within the first week of release

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 4 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumvs
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.900Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-23

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $234

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WILD | 54¢ | +1pp | $204 | kalshi | /markets/will-wild-by-katseye-have-more-first-week-album-eq-kalshi-kxalbumvs-los26aug21-wil |
| Lost Weekend | 45¢ | −12pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-lost-weekend-by-phoebe-bridgers-have-more-fir-kalshi-kxalbumvs-los26aug21-los |
| Daughter From Hell | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daughter-from-hell-have-more-first-week-album-kalshi-kxalbumvs-dau26jul31-dau |
| Music, Fashion, Film | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-music-fashion-film-have-more-first-week-album-kalshi-kxalbumvs-dau26jul31-mus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 49 |
| 2026-06-24 | 41 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 |
| 2026-06-26 | 41 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Lost Weekend −12pp 40→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Lost Weekend −9pp 49→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · WILD +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Phoebe Bridgers' "Lost Weekend" will accumulate more Album Equivalent Units than KATSEYE's "WILD" during their respective first tracking weeks on Luminate. The 51% probability reflects near-parity between the two releases, with the market essentially undecided. Bridgers' established fanbase and prior commercial success create a baseline expectation, while KATSEYE's trajectory as an emerging act introduces uncertainty about debut momentum. The resolution depends on actual Luminate data released after each album's first tracking week concludes. Chart positioning, playlist placements, streaming velocity, and pre-order numbers in the weeks before release will provide signals about likely outcomes, though first-week unit totals remain the definitive metric.

### Key factors

- Phoebe Bridgers' previous album performance and established listener base versus KATSEYE's standing as a newer artist with potentially concentrated fanbase engagement
- Pre-order volume and early streaming patterns in the two weeks before each release, which historically correlate with first-week unit performance
- Playlist placement depth and breadth on major streaming services, particularly Spotify and Apple Music, during the first tracking week
- Release date proximity to major holidays, competing releases, or promotional campaigns that could affect week-over-week consumption
- Luminate's official first-week Album Equivalent Unit counts, which determine resolution and are typically reported within 2-3 weeks after each release date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/albumvs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=albumvs

## License

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