# Algeria vs. Austria

> Austria leads at 41%, runner-up 40% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/algeria-vs-austria
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.860Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-28

## Headline

- Leader: Austria at 41%
- Runner-up: Algeria at 40%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $134

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 41¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/algeria-vs-austria-austria-polymarket-0xca1f4760e175d71d1c7677dbc56a1856dc2cee6a4d8de8275a16dbca716afd24 |
| Algeria | 40¢ | ±0 | $129 | polymarket | /markets/algeria-vs-austria-algeria-polymarket-0x7806f3a191784bfedb4bb3d99db890d05a834e413a50ecbf6893f7926089e45b |
| Draw (Algeria vs. Austria) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/algeria-vs-austria-draw-algeria-vs-austria-polymarket-0xd6a5a44e8105c4808ba09d19bce444b22b883330fd6e23e5661988b3583a9d4c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Austria | Algeria | Draw (Algeria vs. Austria) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 40 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 42 | 40 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 40 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects the combined market expectation that Algeria will defeat Austria in an upcoming match. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (35%) and Kalshi (15%) suggests disagreement about Algeria's chances, potentially driven by different assessments of recent form, head-to-head records, or team composition. Volume concentration in Argentina-Algeria contracts rather than Austria-Algeria contracts indicates less direct market certainty about the specific Austria matchup. The outcome will be determined when the match is played, making team news, injury status, and lineup announcements in the days prior key drivers of any probability shifts before the event resolves.

### Key factors

- Polymarket prices Algeria at 35% versus Kalshi at 15%, indicating a substantial venue-level disagreement that may reflect different user bases or information sets
- The top-volume contract is Argentina vs. Algeria (not Austria), suggesting market participants have more conviction about other matchups in this tournament or series
- Austria trades at 73% against Jordan and Algeria at 60% against Jordan in separate contracts, creating potential arbitrage implications if these represent the same tournament structure
- No clear scheduled date visible in the data; resolution timing and whether this is a knockout or group-stage match would influence probability stability
- The relatively low absolute volumes across most contracts ($0–$349 per 24h) indicate thin liquidity, making individual large trades more likely to move probabilities significantly

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/algeria-vs-austria
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=algeria-vs-austria

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.