# Will the US confirm aliens exist?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 13 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aliens-confirmed
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:11.903Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $44

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 100,000 | 37¢ | −1pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-100000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-100000 |
| 2 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| More than 150,000 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-150000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-150000 |
| 3 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t3 |
| 4 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t4 |
| At least $400 billion | 63¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-increase-by-400000000000-kalshi-kxgovtspend-27-400b |
| At least $500 billion | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-increase-by-500000000000-kalshi-kxgovtspend-27-500b |
| More than 200,000 | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-200000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-200000 |
| More than 250,000 | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-250000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-250000 |
| More than 300,000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-300000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-300000 |
| 5 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t5 |
| At least $1 billion | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-increase-by-1000000000-be-kalshi-kxgovtspend-27-1b |
| At least $50 billion | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-increase-by-50000000000-b-kalshi-kxgovtspend-27-50b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 43 |
| 2026-05-24 | 59 |
| 2026-06-01 | 46 |
| 2026-06-08 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · More than 150,000 −21pp 45→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 100,000 −18pp 74→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · More than 100,000 −16pp 56→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 200,000 −8pp 18→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 250,000 −7pp 11→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

There is no definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life, though prediction markets currently suggest it is highly likely that President Trump will release new UAP/UFO files by August 2026. While contracts betting on a release before early June 2026 are trading at very low odds, the probability significantly increases toward the end of summer, hitting 98% for a release by August 1. However, the market assigns a much lower 34% chance that this release will be accompanied by an executive action specifically concerning UAP declassification by August.

### Key factors

- High market-implied probability for UAP file release by August
- Low current expectation for executive action on UAP declassification
- Near-term uncertainty regarding immediate June disclosures
- Prediction market-implied timeline for government transparency

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aliens-confirmed
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aliens-confirmed

## License

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