# Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before July 2026

> Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 35%, runner-up 26% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aliens
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.906Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 35%
- Runner-up: Before 2028 at 26%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $93K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 35¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-in-2029-befo-kalshi-kxaliens-27-29 |
| Before 2028 | 26¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-in-2028-befo-kalshi-kxaliens-27-28 |
| Before 2027 | 17¢ | −1pp | $45K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-kalshi-kxaliens-27 |
| Before September 2026 | 7¢ | +1pp | $39K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-in-2026-befo-kalshi-kxaliens-27-26sep |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 20, 2029 | Before 2028 | Before 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | — | — | 21 |
| 2026-05-12 | 7 | 3 | 18 |
| 2026-05-14 | 30 | 25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-21 | 37 | 30 | 17 |
| 2026-05-27 | 33 | 25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-28 | 34 | 26 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Before Jan 20, 2029 −3pp 40→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Before 2028 −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aliens
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aliens

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.