# Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 4, 2026

> Before Jul 1, 2027 leads at 60%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alitoannounceretire
Updated: 2026-07-09T23:20:50.472Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 60%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 60¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-alito-announce-their-departure-as-supr-kalshi-kxalitoannounceretire-26jun-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28¢ | −4pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-alito-announce-their-departure-as-supr-kalshi-kxalitoannounceretire-26jun-jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 15¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-alito-announce-their-departure-as-supr-kalshi-kxalitoannounceretire-26jun-oct01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 7¢ | −1pp | $37K | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-alito-announce-their-departure-as-supr-kalshi-kxalitoannounceretire-26jun-aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 30 | 40 | 32 |
| 2026-07-02 | 55 | 38 | 29 |
| 2026-07-08 | 59 | 31 | 11 |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | 13 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-02 · Before Jul 1, 2027 −13pp 68→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −8pp 29→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −8pp 46→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −5pp 20→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −5pp 15→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement before July 4, 2026. The 10-cent price for the near-term window suggests traders view an imminent announcement as unlikely, though the 52-cent price for before January 1, 2027 indicates higher expectations for retirement within the next six months. The probability would increase if Alito signals health concerns, signals retirement intentions, or if external pressure accelerates through additional congressional statements or media developments. The biggest near-term catalyst is whether Alito makes any public statements or retirement announcements in early July, with subsequent quarterly timeframes offering additional resolution points through the end of 2026.

### Key factors

- Current Kalshi contract prices show only 10% likelihood of announcement by July 4, 2026, compared to 52% by January 1, 2027
- Trading volume is highest on the January 2027 deadline ($15,885 in 24h volume), indicating that's where market uncertainty is concentrated
- No public statements from Alito or the Supreme Court indicate imminent retirement plans as of early July 2026
- The probabilities across staggered dates suggest traders expect potential announcement in late 2026 rather than immediate term
- Seasonal timing and typical Supreme Court announcement patterns (often at session end) affect probability distribution across these deadlines

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alitoannounceretire
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alitoannounceretire

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.