# Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

> Above 81% leads at 91%, runner-up 88% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alka
Updated: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.889Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-27

## Headline

- Leader: Above 81% at 91%
- Runner-up: Above 81.5% at 88%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 81% | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-81-passenge-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-81 |
| Above 81.5% | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-815-passeng-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-81.5 |
| Above 82% | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-82-passenge-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-82 |
| Above 82.5% | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-825-passeng-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-82.5 |
| Above 83% | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-83-passenge-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-83 |
| Above 83.5% | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-835-passeng-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-83.5 |
| Above 84% | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-84-passenge-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-84 |
| Above 84.5% | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alaska-air-group-inc-report-above-845-passeng-kalshi-kxalka-27janplf-84.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 81% | Above 81.5% | Above 82% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 96 | 95 | 85 |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — | 75 |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-08-02 | 92 | 89 | 74 |
| 2026-08-11 | — | — | 75 |
| 2026-08-13 | 61 | 59 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 91 | 88 | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 91 | 88 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 81.5% +43pp 45→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 81% +42pp 49→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 83% +11pp 13→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Alaska Air Group will achieve a passenger load factor above 85% when reporting fiscal 2026 results. The extremely low price (3 cents) suggests markets view this outcome as highly unlikely, despite confidence that the airline will exceed 81% load factors. Key drivers include seasonal demand patterns, fuel costs, competition, and Alaska's capacity management during peak travel periods. The resolution hinges on Alaska Air's official fiscal 2026 financial reporting, expected in early 2027, which will disclose actual load factor performance. Current market pricing indicates a sharp drop-off in probability between 81-85% load factors, suggesting traders expect meaningful headwinds at higher thresholds.

### Key factors

- Alaska Air's historical load factors and whether 85%+ has been achieved or approached in prior fiscal years
- Macro airline capacity growth and industry load factor trends for fiscal 2026 relative to demand
- Alaska Air's specific capacity additions or retirements scheduled during fiscal 2026
- Seasonal demand volatility and economic conditions affecting summer and winter travel bookings
- Competitive pricing pressure and market share dynamics in Alaska's core West Coast routes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alka

## License

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