# Degerfors vs AIK Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 12 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/allsvenskangame
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.924Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar | 53¢ | — | $35 | kalshi | /markets/kalmar-vs-halmstad-winner-kalmar-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10kalhal-kal |
| Sirius | 78¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sirius-vs-orgryte-winner-sirius-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may11sirorg-sir |
| Orgryte | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sirius-vs-orgryte-winner-orgryte-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may11sirorg-org |
| Tie | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sirius-vs-orgryte-winner-tie-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may11sirorg-tie |
| BK Hacken | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bk-hacken-vs-malmo-winner-bk-hacken-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10hacmal-hac |
| Malmo | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bk-hacken-vs-malmo-winner-malmo-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10hacmal-mal |
| Tie | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bk-hacken-vs-malmo-winner-tie-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10hacmal-tie |
| Halmstad | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kalmar-vs-halmstad-winner-halmstad-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10kalhal-hal |
| Tie | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kalmar-vs-halmstad-winner-tie-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10kalhal-tie |
| AIK | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/aik-vs-djurgarden-winner-aik-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10aikdju-aik |
| Djurgarden | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/aik-vs-djurgarden-winner-djurgarden-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10aikdju-dju |
| Tie | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/aik-vs-djurgarden-winner-tie-kalshi-kxallsvenskangame-26may10aikdju-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 30 |
| 2026-05-09 | 30 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Malmo +3pp 29→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tie +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Tie +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 40% probability that Degerfors wins an upcoming match against AIK. The probability sits between two venues with notably different assessments: Kalshi traders price it at 35% while Polymarket traders assess it at 47%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the teams' relative strength. The outcome depends primarily on current team form, head-to-head historical performance, and any lineup or injury changes before the match. The resolution will occur when the match is played, making recent team statistics and roster status the main information sources that could shift this probability before the event concludes.

### Key factors

- Kalshi and Polymarket show a 12 percentage-point gap, with Polymarket assigning materially higher probability to Degerfors winning, suggesting traders on different venues weight available information differently
- Volume concentration on Kalshi (the top contract has $443 24h volume) versus minimal volume on the direct Polymarket Degerfors-AIK contract indicates liquidity may be concentrated on related markets rather than this specific matchup
- The Swedish Hockey League reference in the contract data requires verification of sport classification and opponent accuracy to confirm this market is pricing the stated matchup correctly
- Historical head-to-head records between these two teams and their current season standings or recent performance trends would be primary drivers of the true probability
- Injury reports and confirmed lineup information closer to match date would provide concrete data to either validate or contradict the current 40% estimate

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/allsvenskangame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=allsvenskangame

## License

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