# Will Andrew Sneed be the Democratic nominee for AL-05

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.532Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $59

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Richardson | 5¢ | +48pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-richardson-be-the-republican-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxalprimary-01r26-jric |
| Jerry Carl | 71¢ | −47pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerry-carl-be-the-republican-nominee-for-al-0-kalshi-kxalprimary-01r26-jcar |
| Joshua McKee | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joshua-mckee-be-the-republican-nominee-for-al-kalshi-kxalprimary-01r26-jmck |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 78 |
| 2026-06-12 | 58 |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 |
| 2026-06-26 | 1 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · James Richardson +48pp 3→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Jerry Carl −47pp 48→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Jerry Carl +30pp 18→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Jerry Carl −12pp 40→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Jerry Carl −10pp 28→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Andrew Sneed will win the Democratic primary for Alabama's 5th congressional district. At 27%, the market views him as a competitive but not favored candidate in what appears to be an open or contested race. The primary outcome will depend on factors such as candidate field strength, voter turnout patterns in the Democratic primary electorate, and local name recognition among potential contenders. The Democratic primary election itself—scheduled for the state's primary date—will be the decisive event that resolves this prediction. Prior to that vote, candidate announcements, endorsements from party leaders or established figures, and polling data closer to the election would likely move this probability significantly either direction.

### Key factors

- Candidate field composition: The number and profile of other Democratic candidates running in AL-05 will materially affect Sneed's primary vote share
- Primary election participation rates: Democratic primary turnout in this district relative to historical averages will influence which candidate appeals resonate most
- Sneed's name recognition and donor support: Measurable indicators like campaign fundraising, endorsements, and polling performance against named opponents would validate or challenge the 27% assessment
- Statewide Democratic lean: Overall Democratic performance in Alabama primaries and the district's demographic composition relative to state averages
- Timeline to primary vote: The specific primary election date and remaining time for candidate emergence and campaign development

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/alprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=alprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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