# 2026 American Music Award for Breakout Tour

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ama
Updated: 2026-05-08T18:50:15.207Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-05-25

## Headline

- Leader: BTS at 88%
- Runner-up: BTS at 85%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTS | 88¢ | +1pp | $233 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-artist-of-the-year-b-kalshi-kxama-26-aoty-bts |
| BTS | 85¢ | +2pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-male-k-pop-arti-kalshi-kxama-26-bmkpa-bts |
| Bad Bunny | 81¢ | +2pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-male-latin-arti-kalshi-kxama-26-bmla-bad |
| Stateside | 68¢ | +5pp | $275 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-collaboration-of-the-kalshi-kxama-26-coty-sta |
| KATSEYE | 66¢ | +8pp | $333 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-breakthrough-pop-art-kalshi-kxama-26-btpa-kat |
| NUEVAYoL | 57¢ | +14pp | $332 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-latin-song-nuev-kalshi-kxama-26-bls-nue |
| SOMBR | 52¢ | +7pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-breakthrough-rockalt-kalshi-kxama-26-btraa-som |
| KPop Demon Hunters | 50¢ | −16pp | $267 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-soundtrack-kpop-kalshi-kxama-26-bs-kpo |
| Twenty One Pilots | 48¢ | +13pp | $407 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-rockalternative-kalshi-kxama-26-braa-twe |
| I Just Might | 44¢ | +7pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-rb-song-i-just-kalshi-kxama-26-brbs-iju |
| Golden | 41¢ | −1pp | $466 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-vocal-performan-kalshi-kxama-26-bvp-gol |
| AM I THE DRAMA | 40¢ | +11pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-hip-hop-album-a-kalshi-kxama-26-bhhal-ami |
| Cowboy Carter Tour | 32¢ | −7pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-tour-of-the-year-cow-kalshi-kxama-26-tou-cow |
| Breach | 32¢ | +4pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-rockalternative-kalshi-kxama-26-braalb-bre |
| ErrTime | 27¢ | +15pp | $532 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-hip-hop-song-er-kalshi-kxama-26-bhhs-err |
| Illegal | 27¢ | −6pp | $332 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-social-song-of-the-y-kalshi-kxama-26-sssoty-ill |
| YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 20¢ | +10pp | $232 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-male-hip-hop-ar-kalshi-kxama-26-bhha-you |
| Golden | 18¢ | +7pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-song-of-the-year-gol-kalshi-kxama-26-soty-gol |
| Up From The Bottom | 8¢ | +6pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-rockalternative-kalshi-kxama-26-bras-upf |
| Don Toliver | 3¢ | +1pp | $202 | kalshi | /markets/2026-american-music-award-for-best-male-hip-hop-ar-kalshi-kxama-26-bhha-don |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | BTS | BTS | Bad Bunny |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 61 | 78 | 71 |
| 2026-04-23 | 87 | 82 | 75 |
| 2026-04-25 | 84 | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 82 | 84 | 78 |
| 2026-05-02 | 80 | 81 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 89 | 82 | 80 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · KPop Demon Hunters −16pp 60→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · ErrTime +15pp 5→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · NUEVAYoL +14pp 43→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Twenty One Pilots +13pp 40→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · AM I THE DRAMA +11pp 29→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that BLACKPINK will win the 2026 American Music Award for Best Female K-Pop Artist at 73%, making them the clear favorite in this category. The high confidence level suggests strong expectations based on the group's commercial performance, chart presence, and award recognition patterns. Key drivers include BLACKPINK's recent release activity and global streaming metrics compared to other nominated artists, along with historical AMA voting patterns favoring established acts with broad domestic appeal. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the AMA nominees announcement and subsequent voting period, where fan voting and industry recognition will determine the final winner. Current market pricing shows minimal trading activity ($1 in 24-hour volume), indicating limited fresh information is flowing in to shift these odds substantially.

### Key factors

- BLACKPINK's streaming numbers and chart performance in the U.S. market relative to other contenders in the Female K-Pop category
- Historical AMA voter preferences for established, commercially dominant groups versus emerging artists
- The timing and prominence of BLACKPINK's 2026 releases and promotional activities leading up to the awards voting period
- Fan engagement and voting participation levels across competing artists, which significantly influence AMA outcomes
- Potential roster changes or competitive entries from other K-pop groups that could fragment voting share in this category

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ama
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ama

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.