# American Hockey League

> Winner: Chicago Wolves leads at 48%, runner-up 48% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/american-hockey-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.153Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Chicago Wolves at 48%
- Runner-up: Winner: Cleveland Monsters at 48%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Chicago Wolves | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-chicago-wolves-polymarket-0x8563ed56efbb24acc5efdc00ba79e88e8019af7ce602994a78a581dcfced137c |
| Winner: Cleveland Monsters | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-cleveland-monsters-polymarket-0x41b3a1221251a4a3fa8502aa31a2fe18f9d01448ed700977c828fad4665b1bfc |
| Winner: Coachella Valley Firebirds | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-coachella-valley-fir-polymarket-0x91ea0f06d19554438906eee50d7d8b1d6c3a636bc2b9aff9708500904a2424aa |
| Winner: Colorado Eagles | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-colorado-eagles-polymarket-0x441391cef755a71cd771d8262b6f7970ac527dfcc1924c5eb2cea290646cbae9 |
| Winner: Grand Rapids Griffins | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-grand-rapids-griffin-polymarket-0x361369b61d4c391b98f0494d8409a70a46c16f81a8bd3c3ebd6a3d69b23f02be |
| Winner: Henderson Silver Knights | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-henderson-silver-kni-polymarket-0x06fb9f3f2e0c11e06969865d5bad6d0962a4f6cfa5699bc3303aaf963e4e0813 |
| Winner: Laval Rocket | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-laval-rocket-polymarket-0x12950ac2131070752468928e679400818c9deadcf83afcc035f717d5c700e8d3 |
| Winner: Manitoba Moose | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-manitoba-moose-polymarket-0xea0b440bbd3135b1bf7d9c14d788e75bcabbc29c335b67e45590a052bd2953ef |
| Winner: Ontario Reign | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-ontario-reign-polymarket-0x15f01c9e2858903d73d369fd8f49e96c7b5fa721093dfad68aab25808befbddb |
| Winner: Springfield Thunderbirds | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-springfield-thunderb-polymarket-0x4f6be21e41d0d2bf9b44af124411b7d59be4a718cc99fa579cbbbb0cd2848cf9 |
| Winner: Toronto Marlies | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-toronto-marlies-polymarket-0x21c429c369b17dcb27e0983dc91f1a70e47d88d18490d631e9a4905d1e21bf18 |
| Winner: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/american-hockey-league-winner-wilkes-barrescranton-polymarket-0xe4cdefbb6e42e337452da1bd8af8fa15ec1b4c1834d1747b6ceeefb7bb6cacd7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Chicago Wolves | Winner: Cleveland Monsters | Winner: Coachella Valley Firebirds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | — | 47 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 48 | 48 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 47% probability reflects traders' assessment of whether the American Hockey League will crown a champion in 2026. The figure sits between a 24% probability on Kalshi and an average of 48% across 19 Polymarket contracts, a significant 24-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about league stability or playoff likelihood. The main drivers of this probability are the AHL's operational continuity and whether the 2025-26 season completes its playoff cycle on schedule. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the AHL's playoff outcomes in spring 2026, as early eliminations or scheduling disruptions could alter the narrative. Factors pushing probability higher include normal league operations and historical precedent of successful championships; factors pushing lower would be organizational challenges or unforeseen operational obstacles.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's 24% probability is substantially lower than Polymarket's 48%, indicating exchanges disagree on whether the AHL definitively completes a championship award in 2026
- All top contracts cluster around 46-48 cents on Polymarket, suggesting multiple teams carry similar odds rather than one dominant favorite
- Polymarket contracts show zero 24-hour volume while the Kalshi baseball contract shows $6,073 volume, indicating low market activity and potentially less reliable price discovery for AHL markets
- The 2025-26 AHL season would need to progress through regular season and playoffs without major disruption to resolve positively by 2026 year-end
- The contract structure tracks binary championship occurrence rather than probability of a specific team, making operational continuation the key variable rather than competitive unpredictability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/american-hockey-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=american-hockey-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.