# Will Amazon Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105

> Above 102 leads at 95%, runner-up 93% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/amzncc
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.709Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 102 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 103 at 93%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $552

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 102 | 95¢ | +4pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 103 | 93¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 104 | 88¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 105 | 85¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 106 | 69¢ | −1pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 107 | 59¢ | ±0 | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t107 |
| Above 108 | 54¢ | ±0 | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t108 |
| Above 109 | 45¢ | +2pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t109 |
| Above 110 | 25¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t110 |
| Above 111 | 24¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t111 |
| Above 112 | 10¢ | −2pp | $225 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxamzncc-26sep07-t112 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 102 | Above 103 | Above 104 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 58 | 57 | 56 |
| 2026-08-09 | 96 | 92 | 89 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 92 | 88 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Above 110 +30pp 21→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 109 +27pp 18→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 111 +22pp 10→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 103 +20pp 67→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 110 −19pp 51→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 51% probability that Amazon credit card spending will exceed $105 billion in August 2026. The current pricing reflects modest confidence in above-threshold spending, with prices remaining stable across the $102-$106 band, suggesting market uncertainty about the exact outcome. Historical Amazon spending patterns, seasonal consumer behavior in August, and macroeconomic conditions through mid-to-late August will be primary drivers. The resolution depends on official August credit card volume data, typically reported in early September, which will either confirm or refute the current market positioning. Notably, the $0 trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent price discovery, suggesting the 51% level may not reflect active consensus but rather stale equilibrium pricing.

### Key factors

- August 2026 represents the back-to-school and end-of-summer period, a traditionally elevated spending month that could push totals above $105B
- Year-over-year Amazon credit card spending growth rates and any announced changes to rewards programs or shopping incentives through August
- Macroeconomic conditions including consumer credit availability, inflation, and employment levels as of late August 2026
- Comparison to historical August spending baselines and the established range across the $102-$106 band, where all thresholds show 51% or near-51% probability
- The zero 24-hour trading volume suggests no new information has updated market prices; actual data release in early September will be the definitive resolution event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/amzncc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=amzncc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.