# Andalusia Election: PP # of seats — 53-55

> Closed. Last odds frozen 19 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats
Updated: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Leader: PP # of seats?: 53-55 at 48%
- Runner-up: PP # of seats?: 56-58 at 47%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $765

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP # of seats?: 53-55 | 48¢ | +2pp | $19 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats-53-55-polymarket-0x5a6e757c5917a519ae5a05d37cc9b4c7e9c59149ec1d9ba1b01900d31b5f4631 |
| PP # of seats?: 56-58 | 47¢ | −2pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats-56-58-polymarket-0x08927f9481670a909c3bcf0543894c1bf95469284c73f2cf04394977a5008651 |
| PP # of seats?: 59-61 | 13¢ | ±0 | $489 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats-59-61-polymarket-0x75da46d6f9d1f94e057577f918f7eff5c8524b22f9cf37df55951a665ef122bb |
| PP # of seats?: 50-52 | 5¢ | ±0 | $232 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats-50-52-polymarket-0x9bf43a567a4b91a70faa1633ef773ca43ef6a7714d04c3ff56c47625ac5d3961 |
| PP # of seats?: <50 | 3¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats-50-polymarket-0x61992a9b6173bc6d0aa287ad5ab3ec4bffcc7165813f40663045e11ab2f81513 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | PP # of seats?: 53-55 | PP # of seats?: 56-58 | PP # of seats?: 59-61 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 52 | 36 | 15 |
| 2026-05-25 | 95 | 4 | 2 |
| 2026-05-30 | 93 | 2 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 94 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-06-06 | 97 | 0 | 2 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 40% probability that Spain's PP (People's Party) will win between 53–55 seats in Andalusia, making it the single most-likely outcome among six bracketed options. The market shows meaningful probability mass spread across adjacent ranges: 56–58 seats trades at 30%, and 59–61 seats at 12%, suggesting traders view a broader PP performance band (53–61 seats) as highly plausible. The current 40% price reflects that while this seat range is favored, substantial uncertainty remains about whether the PP performs slightly better or worse. Key drivers include recent regional polling trends, national political dynamics affecting PP momentum, and turnout patterns that typically influence seat distribution in Spanish regional elections. The outcome will be determined when Andalusia holds its next scheduled regional election; until that date, market prices depend on evolving polls and political news that signal shifting electoral conditions.

### Key factors

- Most recent Andalusian polling shows PP seat projections and their 95% confidence intervals relative to the 53–55 range
- Trading volume on the 53–55 contract ($20 in 24h) is substantially lower than adjacent ranges, indicating less conviction or liquidity than the current price suggests
- Cumulative probability across 53–61 seat ranges (40% + 30% + 12%) represents 82% of the market, implying traders assign very low likelihood to sub-50 or 62+ outcomes
- The timing of Andalusia's next scheduled regional election and any announced snap-election triggers that would move up or delay the vote
- Recent political events or coalition dynamics at national or regional level that could shift voter behavior or seat projections

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/andalusia-election-pp-of-seats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=andalusia-election-pp-of-seats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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