# Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats — 27-29

> Closed. Last odds frozen 19 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/andalusia-election-psoe-of-seats
Updated: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Leader: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 at 53%
- Runner-up: PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26 at 44%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $141

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 | 53¢ | ±0 | $32 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-psoe-a-of-seats-27-29-polymarket-0x736d165b46bc5c5f2cece071abe5b13cd527d7d069b4f99cbdcc46278c592970 |
| PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26 | 44¢ | −35pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-psoe-a-of-seats-24-26-polymarket-0x23abb31f7161a3cb469d42bfbc272a106e91e1ff2ee5608fb220444d83f53d7f |
| PSOE-A # of seats?: 21-23 | 12¢ | −1pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-psoe-a-of-seats-21-23-polymarket-0x5fac8b3251fcff20b18b6789b5904002d6c924cce0e849709cecb9ad3083b4f6 |
| PSOE-A # of seats?: 30-32 | 9¢ | ±0 | $28 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-psoe-a-of-seats-30-32-polymarket-0x3e78b7b307e24173f6ed50911ddc06a26683c8b5f98ff4bbe85dc814f47d0e2f |
| PSOE-A # of seats?: 33+ | 4¢ | −1pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/andalusia-election-psoe-a-of-seats-33-polymarket-0xda78cde57ea255309c31096f36969e45cb64e55dc02582b538aa5561c61aff15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 | PSOE-A # of seats?: 24-26 | PSOE-A # of seats?: 21-23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 56 | 33 | 6 |
| 2026-05-18 | 100 | 0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 98 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 97 | — | 1 |
| 2026-06-01 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 98 | — | 1 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 +25pp 72→97¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 +15pp 57→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29 +3pp 95→98¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's current assessment that Spain's Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A) will win between 27-29 seats in the upcoming Andalusian regional election. The 53% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, with significant uncertainty remaining. Market participants are weighing regional political dynamics, voter preference trends, and the performance of competing parties—particularly the Popular Party and other regional actors. The outcome depends substantially on regional economic conditions, immigration sentiment, and campaign momentum in the months leading to the election. The election itself will be the definitive catalyst, though pre-election polling releases and any major political developments or scandals could shift expectations before voting occurs. Current pricing indicates this range is viewed as slightly more likely than not, but the 44% probability for the runner-up outcome reflects genuine competitive uncertainty.

### Key factors

- PSOE-A's current polling position relative to the Popular Party (PP-A) and their respective seat projections under Andalusia's electoral system
- Recent voter turnout patterns in Andalusian elections and whether turnout changes would benefit or harm PSOE-A specifically
- The performance and seat-splitting effects of third parties (Ciudadanos, Vox, regional formations) on the distribution of lower-threshold votes
- Economic indicators and regional employment data in Andalusia that could shift voter preferences toward or away from the governing party
- Any significant political scandals, policy announcements, or coalition announcements by major parties in the months before the scheduled election

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/andalusia-election-psoe-of-seats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=andalusia-election-psoe-of-seats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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