# Anime Awards

> Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 leads at 94%, runner-up 88% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/anime-awards
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.236Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Leader: Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 at 94%
- Runner-up: Best Anime Song Winner: "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) at 88%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $838

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 | 94¢ | +2pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-isekai-anime-winner-rezero-start-polymarket-0x4c839295479784ffaed5bb406137b47f7ff8628a0ebb16f874487440236c72da |
| Best Anime Song Winner: "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) | 88¢ | +5pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-anime-song-winner-iris-out-by-ke-polymarket-0x831c1c8a28259153d3e83976bb8009ef0179e49baa630a0f29159cc8de95f2ac |
| Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON | 80¢ | +5pp | $67 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-anime-of-the-year-winner-my-hero-acad-polymarket-0x4b93dc2f9fb0cd0d4e4a1adfaa24e185e6945b7842eaffec9ff641654ab41b4b |
| Best Character Design Winner: Gachiakuta | 68¢ | −5pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-character-design-winner-gachiaku-polymarket-0x99afeb17c401a46213b47e85900e6f12fb7efe057d438d756592f3334edc5c2b |
| Film of the Year Winner: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle | 65¢ | −3pp | $266 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-film-of-the-year-winner-demon-slayer-polymarket-0x9c5467da2bc04960439e2479ed5ac6f97790dbbcb326512b3af232a376f4a811 |
| Best Original Anime Winner: Lazarus | 43¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-original-anime-winner-lazarus-polymarket-0x2e8542600f46e8bc7980f1bd658d85dbed5d4b26cdf14afdf356a8c02a4a649a |
| Best Original Anime Winner: ZENSHU | 42¢ | −1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-original-anime-winner-zenshu-polymarket-0x0b8dc5694f96b35c078f2b844e2642de51a7877e3767e80fc1201c181ea47004 |
| Film of the Year Winner: Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc | 39¢ | +2pp | $151 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-film-of-the-year-winner-chainsaw-man-polymarket-0x980766b078cbc1a272ed89231b021a1ff8cc5ef37543aa852717597555f48665 |
| Anime of the Year Winner: DAN DA DAN Season 2 | 12¢ | −5pp | $49 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-anime-of-the-year-winner-dan-da-dan-s-polymarket-0xfb5c2321eaca0f029d9ef8ea806f732ba9166d53852b56620dfcee849291b04d |
| Best Character Design Winner: The Apothecary Diaries Season 2 | 10¢ | −27pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-character-design-winner-the-apot-polymarket-0xe572efb764d3fd0724bf710a6d362629fa7dd7ece85b3b829c3143f2c3dbb15f |
| Best Animation Winner: Takopi's Original Sin | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-animation-winner-takopis-origina-polymarket-0xb4563c861c061cc38a1ac28b6f7f570ac95d3f98715c4e982e88e364d3a3f68e |
| Anime of the Year Winner: Gachiakuta | 7¢ | −2pp | $79 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-anime-of-the-year-winner-gachiakuta-polymarket-0xcf92860b2243fec4be6f1a01bb489d77a5ba710c592c56f99c37e142f088a7ba |
| Best Isekai Anime Winner: Disney Twisted-Wonderland: The Animation — Season 1 "Episode of Heartslabyul" | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-isekai-anime-winner-disney-twist-polymarket-0xa6e90b856d21fca73d3efaf7c4f9d10ffe42a23c399bf1ad9d1f958260cccad5 |
| Best Animation Winner: Gachiakuta | 6¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-best-animation-winner-gachiakuta-polymarket-0xf8fee5391348152f26f41b4f6ecb311ed0758a9bdef934413828dfb87717a414 |
| Anime of the Year Winner: Takopi's Original Sin | 5¢ | −1pp | $79 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-anime-of-the-year-winner-takopis-orig-polymarket-0xd0304260dec6cb0ef1454b6af9a7ce5f52aa2544b6c303404ef7e73b17a29497 |
| Film of the Year Winner: 100 Meters | 3¢ | −4pp | $66 | polymarket | /markets/anime-awards-film-of-the-year-winner-100-meters-polymarket-0xa0453cc14391b862e69acd649cc9266b87241db93316a49d635efc22ba5cf6e4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3 | Best Anime Song Winner: "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) | Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 60 | 71 | 71 |
| 2026-05-02 | 67 | 68 | 72 |
| 2026-05-09 | 95 | 89 | 80 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Best Animation Winner: Takopi's Original Sin −29pp 39→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Best Character Design Winner: Gachiakuta +28pp 48→76¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Best Character Design Winner: The Apothecary Diaries Season 2 −27pp 38→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON −24pp 72→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Best Original Anime Winner: Lazarus +24pp 13→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific anime title or category winner will be selected at upcoming anime awards. The leading contract at 71% suggests high confidence in one particular outcome, likely driven by voting patterns, critical acclaim, or industry momentum from earlier in 2026. The market remains competitive, with a runner-up at 67%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. Key drivers include the timing of award voting windows, which typically occur in spring for annual ceremonies, and relative trading volume concentrated on "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" at 43 cents, suggesting this is the favored Anime of the Year candidate. Resolution depends on the official award announcement date—presumably scheduled for late May or June 2026 based on typical ceremony calendars. Traders are pricing in substantial disagreement: the gap between the leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) is narrow, and combined probability across top three outcomes exceeds 100%, reflecting overlapping contract structures in this multi-outcome market.

### Key factors

- My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON commands 43¢ with $1,800 daily volume, significantly outpacing other Anime of the Year candidates by trading activity and price
- The leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) are within 4 percentage points, indicating genuine market disagreement rather than consensus
- Total liquidity appears concentrated in the Anime of the Year category rather than evenly distributed across 20 contracts, suggesting structural imbalance
- Award voting typically closes 4-8 weeks before ceremony dates; the absence of announced winner information as of early May 2026 leaves substantial resolution uncertainty
- Category winners (e.g., Best Anime Song at 31¢) trade at materially lower prices than Anime of the Year frontrunners, suggesting market prioritizes year-end general awards over specific categories

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/anime-awards
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=anime-awards

## License

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