# 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Score

> Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc leads at 59%, runner-up 13% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/animebs
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.058Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-23

## Headline

- Leader: Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc at 59%
- Runner-up: DAN DA DAN Season 2 at 13%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc | 59¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-score-kalshi-kxanimebs-26-cha |
| DAN DA DAN Season 2 | 13¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-score-kalshi-kxanimebs-26-dan |
| Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow- | 11¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-score-kalshi-kxanimebs-26-sol |
| Tie | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-score-kalshi-kxanimebs-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc | DAN DA DAN Season 2 | Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow- |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 60 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-04-27 | 60 | 8 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 58 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 58 | 13 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 59 | — | 8 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · DAN DA DAN Season 2 +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow- +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 64% probability reflects that the market views a particular anime score as the leading favorite to win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award in this category, though a runner-up sits close at 61%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. The current level reflects recent trading activity on Kalshi with moderate volume ($100-$194 per day across the top contracts), suggesting informed but not overwhelming participation. The main drivers are the release and reception quality of competing anime soundtracks throughout 2026, as well as voter preferences on the Crunchyroll platform. The award ceremony date—currently unscheduled publicly but typically held in early spring following eligibility periods—will be the primary catalyst that resolves this contract. Until voting closes and results are announced, perception of which soundtrack achieved cultural prominence or critical acclaim will continue shifting trader sentiment.

### Key factors

- The gap between the leader (64%) and runner-up (61%) is only 3 percentage points, indicating the market assigns substantial probability to multiple outcomes rather than consensus
- Kalshi volume on related Crunchyroll Award categories (Best Anime Song at 61¢, Best Character Design at 47¢) shows uneven confidence, suggesting voters may weight different criteria unpredictably
- The contract has accumulated only 20 bound trades total, indicating relatively light liquidity and potential for larger moves if new information about competing soundtracks emerges
- Eligibility and eligibility disputes over which soundtracks qualify could narrow or expand the competitive field before voting begins
- The actual Crunchyroll Award ceremony date and public voting announcement schedule remain the critical unknown that will trigger final price discovery

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/animebs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=animebs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.