# 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character

> Kaoruko Waguri leads at 29%, runner-up 14% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/animempaacc
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.018Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-23

## Headline

- Leader: Kaoruko Waguri at 29%
- Runner-up: Maomao at 14%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoruko Waguri | 29¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-must-p-kalshi-kxanimempaacc-26-kao |
| Maomao | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-must-p-kalshi-kxanimempaacc-26-mao |
| Takopi | 14¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-must-p-kalshi-kxanimempaacc-26-tak |
| Tie | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-must-p-kalshi-kxanimempaacc-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kaoruko Waguri | Maomao | Takopi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 14 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 20 | — | 14 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Takopi +12pp 2→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Kaoruko Waguri +9pp 11→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Kaoruko Waguri −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that a specific character will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award in the 'Must Protect At All Costs' category, currently priced at 67% likelihood. The leader holds this elevated probability because voters typically cluster support around characters from high-profile or recently completed series with strong emotional resonance—a category the leading character evidently satisfies. The probability could shift if competing anime from 2025–2026 release seasons generate unexpectedly fervent fan campaigns or if voting patterns diverge from historical character-award trends. Resolution depends on the Crunchyroll Anime Awards ceremony date and official announcement of the winner in this specific category. Limited trading volume ($58–$194 per day across related contracts) means new information or coordinated voting awareness could move prices materially.

### Key factors

- Character originates from a continuing or recent series with sufficient audience reach and narrative prominence to drive sustained voting turnout
- The 'Must Protect At All Costs' category reflects emotional-resonance voting; characters from slice-of-life, comedy, or protective-protagonist narratives historically perform well
- Related award categories show moderate pricing (47–61¢), suggesting baseline uncertainty across 2026 anime ballot categories rather than dominant market consensus
- 24-hour trading volumes remain modest ($58–$194), indicating limited real-money validation and susceptibility to shifts as voting approaches
- Crunchyroll Awards ceremony timing and voter eligibility criteria are fixed external events; no announced date shift would alter outcome probability materially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/animempaacc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=animempaacc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.