# Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...

> June 30 leads at 73%, runner-up 12% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/another-70-or-above-earthquake
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:09.994Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 73%
- Runner-up: May 30 at 12%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $470

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 73¢ | +15pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/another-70-or-above-earthquake-by-june-30-polymarket-0x9733288fce1242346a12d01caa5746b43bf3357724d7a6576d215b73303d9b3d |
| May 30 | 12¢ | −3pp | $391 | polymarket | /markets/another-70-or-above-earthquake-by-may-30-polymarket-0xdc1f4454acb0ea3d8c6df00ef2a5dc4fd542fbb6131bd0db04015d29025a729c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 36 |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 29 |
| 2026-05-26 | 59 | 19 |
| 2026-05-27 | 74 | 16 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 13 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · June 30 +15pp 59→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · May 30 −7pp 28→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · May 30 −3pp 19→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · May 30 −3pp 16→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the aggregated estimate that a magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake will occur somewhere on Earth by June 30, 2026. The 70% probability on the June 30 outcome, compared to 17% for May 30, suggests markets expect the event within the next month, though seismic activity cannot be reliably predicted. The current level reflects baseline earthquake frequencies—statistically, 7.0+ magnitude events occur roughly 15 times per year globally. The main drivers are recent tectonic activity patterns, historical seismic clusters in active zones, and standard recurrence intervals for major faults. The resolution will depend on USGS and international seismic monitoring agencies confirming whether a qualifying earthquake occurs before the deadline. Market pricing may shift with significant foreshock activity or changes in geological monitoring data.

### Key factors

- Global earthquake frequency data shows 7.0+ events occur at roughly 15-per-year baseline, implying ~21% probability for a 30-day window under uniform distribution
- The May 30 contract pricing (17¢) versus June 30 (70¢) suggests traders assign meaningful probability to the event occurring within the first 3 days versus the full month
- Recent tectonic data and USGS monitoring would be the primary source for updating estimates; no specific high-risk zone or forecasted event appears to be driving the current level
- The outcome will be determined by official USGS magnitude assessments and timestamp confirmation; borderline magnitude cases (6.9 vs 7.0) could create disputes
- Historical catalogs show clustering patterns in specific zones; an active swarm in high-risk regions (Ring of Fire, subduction zones) would likely push probabilities higher

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/another-70-or-above-earthquake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=another-70-or-above-earthquake

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.