# Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 11 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.104Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 43% / Polymarket 18% — 25pp spread
- 24h volume: $60K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 39¢ | ±0 | $58K | polymarket | /markets/us-military-action-against-cuba-by-december-31-polymarket-0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 |
| Yes | 30¢ | +2pp | $574 | kalshi | /markets/will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026-yes-kalshi-kxleaveopec-27 |
| 10 | 16¢ | −4pp | $568 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86 |
| United States | 55¢ | +3pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-t-kalshi-kxmoonman-31-usa |
| 8 | 29¢ | −1pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda |
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | 4¢ | −2pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/will-another-country-recognize-somaliland-by-june-polymarket-0x152535dc7d0e961cad58550089338ab78a93b5488bac0371f29a7ddaedb823f0 |
| 9 | 27¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692 |
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $26 | polymarket | /markets/will-any-country-leave-nato-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x523959b6256674318eb34755789fffd8c62cd652e5fa11ffd332402361d058e9 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | 11¢ | −1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-polymarket-0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | 23¢ | −1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-a-latin-american-country-in-202-polymarket-0x984ee41a6ca3a79a425befa1dc635ff8204cd29550190b8363ae6a1250c1677d |
| 11 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 27 |
| 2026-05-25 | 27 |
| 2026-06-01 | 28 |
| 2026-06-08 | 27 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? −10pp 17→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 10 −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 10 +6pp 11→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 8 +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 9 −6pp 26→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that a country other than the United States conducts military action against Iran by a specified date. At 19%, the probability reflects relatively low near-term risk of foreign military engagement, though not negligible. The assessment hinges on regional tensions, particularly involving Israel and Gulf states, alongside Iran's nuclear program trajectory and rhetoric. Escalation would likely depend on Iranian provocation, a major regional incident, or shifts in diplomatic relations. De-escalation factors include ongoing negotiations, economic pressures on Iran, and international efforts to contain conflict. The resolution depends on observable military strikes, airstrikes, or sustained combat operations meeting specific criteria, with developments in Israeli-Iranian tensions and any Iranian nuclear advances serving as primary indicators of probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Israeli military capabilities and stated red lines regarding Iranian nuclear facilities remain the most direct catalyst for potential action
- Current status and trajectory of Iranian nuclear enrichment levels relative to IAEA monitoring and international agreement compliance
- Regional proxy activities by Iran and responses from Gulf state allies or Israel that could trigger direct military engagement
- Diplomatic engagement levels between Iran and international stakeholders, including any active negotiations that could reduce conflict likelihood
- Public statements and military posturing from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE regarding Iranian nuclear or military threats

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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