# Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/anthropic-valued-higher-than-openai
Updated: 2026-05-29T19:20:12.618Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 90% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $22

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | 90¢ | +8pp | $22 | polymarket | /markets/anthropic-valued-higher-than-openai-in-2026-polymarket-0xcd4d54b18c84e172b7d066c12bc0460e066814ce12a7402d01f7df73960efece |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 89 |
| 2026-05-25 | 90 |
| 2026-05-28 | 99 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents whether Anthropic's valuation will exceed OpenAI's valuation at any point during 2026. The 90% likelihood reflects current market expectations that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI within this calendar year. The main drivers are recent funding rounds and valuation announcements from both companies. Anthropic's December 2024 funding round valued the company at $60 billion, while OpenAI's most recent public valuation discussion occurred during its February 2025 funding discussions. The key uncertainty involves how each company's valuation changes through 2026—whether through new funding rounds, acquisition activity, or strategic events. No single scheduled resolution event exists; instead, resolution depends on public announcements or documented valuation data from either company during the year. Market participants are pricing in a high probability that at least one company will announce a new valuation that crosses this threshold.

### Key factors

- Anthropic's December 2024 valuation of $60 billion versus OpenAI's last documented valuation and any new funding announcements either company makes in 2026
- The timing and terms of potential new funding rounds for either company, which would establish official new valuations
- Public statements or third-party valuations from industry analysts, investment banks, or acquisition discussions involving either company
- Changes in AI market dynamics, deployment adoption rates, or revenue performance that could influence investor valuations of both companies
- Whether OpenAI pursues a public listing or other corporate event that would establish a market-determined valuation in 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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