# Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 15 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/anthropicbankpublic
Updated: 2026-08-30T17:20:51.773Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen & Company | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-allen-company-take-anthropic-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-allcx |
| Centerview | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-centerview-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-cvpxx |
| Evercore | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-evercore-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-1-2-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-evrx |
| Greenhill & Co | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greenhill-co-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-ghlx |
| Lazard | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lazard-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-1-202-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-lazx |
| Moelis & Company | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-moelis-company-take-anthropic-public-before-j-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-mcx |
| Mizuho | 58¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mizuho-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-1-202-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-mzhox |
| Piper Sandler | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-piper-sandler-take-anthropic-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-piprx |
| PJT Partners | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pjt-partners-take-anthropic-public-before-jan-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-pjtx |
| Perella Weinberg Partners | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-perella-weinberg-partners-take-anthropic-publ-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-pwpx |
| Qatalyst Partners | 16¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-qatalyst-partners-take-anthropic-public-befor-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-qatax |
| Raymond James | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raymond-james-take-anthropic-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-rjfx |
| Rothschild & Co | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rothschild-co-take-anthropic-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-rothx |
| Stifel Financial | 31¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stifel-financial-take-anthropic-public-before-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-sfx |
| William Blair | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-william-blair-take-anthropic-public-before-ja-kalshi-kxanthropicbankpublic-28jan01-wblax |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | 27 |
| 2026-08-29 | 34 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Stifel Financial −24pp 44→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Stifel Financial −17pp 31→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Stifel Financial +11pp 20→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Lazard −7pp 18→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Centerview −6pp 14→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Centerview Partners will serve as lead advisor for an Anthropic IPO within 18 months. Market participants are pricing in a 31% chance of this specific outcome, though related contracts show varying probabilities for other investment banks in the same role. The main drivers are Anthropic's current funding status, profitability trajectory, and stated timeline for going public—the company has indicated interest in an eventual IPO but has not announced specific timing. Key factors include whether Anthropic reaches profitability, regulatory clarity around AI companies, broader market conditions for tech IPOs, and Centerview's competitive position relative to other major investment banks already priced higher on similar contracts. The resolution depends on an official IPO announcement naming Centerview as lead advisor before January 1, 2028.

### Key factors

- Anthropic's current private valuation and cash position relative to IPO readiness timeline
- Centerview's historical success winning AI/tech advisory mandates compared to competing banks
- Regulatory developments affecting AI company public market eligibility and disclosure requirements
- Broader IPO market conditions and tech sector investor appetite between now and end of 2027
- Whether Anthropic announces IPO plans publicly and identifies lead financial advisors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/anthropicbankpublic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=anthropicbankpublic

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