# Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/any-month-of-hottest-record
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: climate
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Probability: 85% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? | 85¢ | −1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/will-any-month-of-2026-be-the-hottest-on-record-polymarket-0x37402c8c83fc8b43193b19275e760e66c75dea14406977d47a73241c526b6cf2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 88 |
| 2026-06-11 | 82 |
| 2026-06-17 | 86 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether any single month in 2026 will record higher average temperatures than any month in instrumental history. The 32% probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether 2026 will exceed records set in recent years, particularly 2023 and 2024. Temperature trends depend primarily on seasonal patterns, El Niño/La Niña conditions, and underlying climate warming. Current probability reflects disagreement between venues, with Polymarket pricing substantially higher. The main resolution driver is the monthly global temperature data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus throughout 2026, with particular attention to Northern Hemisphere summer months (June-August) when records are most frequently set. December's final data confirmation typically occurs in January 2027.

### Key factors

- Recent monthly records were set in 2023-2024; beating these requires either exceptional conditions or measurement of a sustained warming trend
- Tropical Pacific conditions (El Niño/La Niña phase) significantly influence global temperature anomalies; current forecasts through 2026 will inform probability revisions
- Northern Hemisphere summer months (June-August) historically see the largest monthly temperature anomalies and represent the highest-probability window for record-breaking
- Monthly temperature releases from NOAA, Copernicus, and JMA provide the definitive data; each monthly release from May 2026 onward will resolve partial uncertainty
- The gap between Kalshi (29%) and Polymarket (80%) suggests markets disagree on climate trend momentum and record-beating likelihood rather than factual disagreement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/any-month-of-hottest-record
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=any-month-of-hottest-record

## License

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