# Will AP call the Los Angeles mayoral primary before 11:05 PM ET on Jun 2, 2026

> Before Jun 15 leads at 93%, runner-up 90% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/apcalllamayor
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:11.018Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 15 at 93%
- Runner-up: Before Jun 20 at 90%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 15 | 93¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ap-call-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-primary-kalshi-kxapcalllamayor-26jun03-jun1512a |
| Before Jun 20 | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ap-call-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-primary-kalshi-kxapcalllamayor-26jun04-jun2012a |
| Before Jun 12 | 58¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ap-call-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-primary-kalshi-kxapcalllamayor-26jun04-jun1212a |
| Before Jun 8 | 3¢ | +45pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-ap-call-the-2026-los-angeles-mayoral-primary-kalshi-kxapcalllamayor-26jun03-jun0812a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 15 | Before Jun 20 | Before Jun 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 65 | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | — | 42 | 22 |
| 2026-06-06 | 93 | 46 | 49 |
| 2026-06-07 | 96 | 46 | 77 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Before Jun 8 +45pp 12→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before Jun 12 +28pp 49→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before Jun 15 +28pp 65→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before Jun 12 +27pp 22→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Before Jun 8 −7pp 23→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that the Associated Press will call the Los Angeles mayoral primary election before 10:00 AM ET on June 3, 2026. At 88%, traders are pricing in a high likelihood of an early call, reflecting expectations that vote counts will be sufficient for AP to make a projection. The call timing depends on two primary factors: the margin between leading candidates and how quickly county election officials process and report results. Wider gaps between top contenders typically enable faster calls, while tight races require more complete vote counts. The main uncertainty resolver is the actual election results and vote-counting pace on election night and the morning after, which will determine whether AP has enough data to call the race with confidence.

### Key factors

- Vote margins between the top candidates—races with leads greater than the margin of remaining ballots allow earlier calls
- Speed of Los Angeles County ballot processing and reporting, which influences when AP receives sufficient data for projection models
- Historical AP call patterns for California municipal elections and how recent changes to vote-counting procedures affect timing
- Whether any candidate reaches a threshold that makes a runoff scenario unlikely or eliminates uncertainty about outcomes
- Actual voter turnout levels, which affect both the density of counted votes needed for statistical confidence and the timeline for complete reporting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/apcalllamayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=apcalllamayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.