# Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 18 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/apfddhgame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.306Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: Nacional

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luqueno | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luqueno-vs-libertad-winner-luqueno-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11luqlib-luq |
| Libertad | 38¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luqueno-vs-libertad-winner-libertad-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11luqlib-lib |
| Tie | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luqueno-vs-libertad-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11luqlib-tie |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 42¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sportivo-ameliano-vs-cd-recoleta-winner-sportivo-a-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11sporec-spo |
| CD Recoleta | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sportivo-ameliano-vs-cd-recoleta-winner-cd-recolet-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11sporec-rec |
| Tie | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sportivo-ameliano-vs-cd-recoleta-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may11sporec-tie |
| Cerro Porteno | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cerro-porteno-vs-club-guarani-winner-cerro-porteno-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10cpogua-cpo |
| Club Guarani | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cerro-porteno-vs-club-guarani-winner-club-guarani-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10cpogua-gua |
| Tie | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cerro-porteno-vs-club-guarani-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10cpogua-tie |
| San Lorenzo | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-lorenzo-vs-olimpia-winner-san-lorenzo-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10ssloli-ssl |
| Olimpia | 67¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-lorenzo-vs-olimpia-winner-olimpia-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10ssloli-oli |
| Tie | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-lorenzo-vs-olimpia-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may10ssloli-tie |
| Nacional | 40¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nacional-vs-trinidense-winner-nacional-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09nactri-nac |
| Trinidense | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nacional-vs-trinidense-winner-trinidense-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09nactri-tri |
| Tie | 29¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nacional-vs-trinidense-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09nactri-tie |
| CS 2 de Mayo | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cs-2-de-mayo-vs-rubio-nu-winner-cs-2-de-mayo-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09mayrub-may |
| Rubio Nu | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cs-2-de-mayo-vs-rubio-nu-winner-rubio-nu-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09mayrub-rub |
| Tie | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cs-2-de-mayo-vs-rubio-nu-winner-tie-kalshi-kxapfddhgame-26may09mayrub-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | 29 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Nacional +3pp 41→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Rubio Nu +3pp 24→27¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/apfddhgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=apfddhgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.