# 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record — 4th or lower

> Closed. Last odds frozen 26 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record
Updated: 2026-05-12T12:50:10.869Z
Category: climate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd hottest | 97¢ | +2pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/2026-april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record-3rd-hotte-polymarket-0x8a0c82e6702917252f0363f817ec895d7bbd947244d9ee13007ae410f9ae21ad |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 98 |
| 2026-05-11 | 100 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether the first three days of April 2026 will rank as the 4th hottest on record or lower, rather than among the top three. The current 43% probability reflects a significant disagreement between trading venues—Kalshi traders assign 60% odds while Polymarket traders assess only 32%, a 28-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine uncertainty about how April's temperatures will compare to historical records. The outcome depends on both actual temperatures during April 1-3 and the methodology used to calculate historical rankings. Resolution will occur when official temperature data from meteorological agencies becomes available, likely in early May 2026. The divergence between venues may reflect different interpretations of climate trends, seasonal weather patterns, or confidence in data sources used for historical comparisons.

### Key factors

- Global temperature anomalies in late March 2026 will establish the baseline context for early April conditions
- Kalshi's 28-point probability premium suggests venue participants expect either warmer-than-baseline April temperatures or stricter ranking methodologies
- Official ranking methodology (which dataset, which geographic scope, which averaging method) will be determinative for resolution
- Historical April 1-3 temperature records vary significantly across data sources, creating ambiguity in what constitutes 'top 3 hottest'
- No major weather pattern reversal or climate event scheduled between now and April 1-3 is known to alter seasonal expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=april-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record

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