# Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aprpotus
Updated: 2026-06-11T19:20:50.876Z
Category: politics
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Leader: 39.9 to 40.1 at 49%
- Runner-up: 40.2 to 40.4 at 30%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.9 to 40.1 | 49¢ | +10pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-between-399-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-40.0 |
| 40.2 to 40.4 | 30¢ | −7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-between-402-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-40.3 |
| 39.6 to 39.8 | 5¢ | −14pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-between-396-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-39.7 |
| 40.5 to 40.7 | 5¢ | −8pp | $795 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-between-405-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-40.6 |
| Below 39.0 | 3¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-below-390-a-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-39.0 |
| 39.0 to 39.2 | 3¢ | +1pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-presidents-approval-rating-be-between-390-kalshi-kxaprpotus-26jun12-39.1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 39.9 to 40.1 | 40.2 to 40.4 | 39.6 to 39.8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 19 | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-06-06 | 22 | 16 | 11 |
| 2026-06-08 | 21 | 17 | 14 |
| 2026-06-09 | 24 | 20 | 23 |
| 2026-06-10 | 34 | 37 | 9 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 30 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 24% chance that the President's approval rating will settle between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics. The market currently favors approval ratings in the 39.6 to 39.8 range (24% probability), with a clustering of outcomes between 39.0 and 40.4. The 41.1-41.3 outcome sits above the most probable range, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a meaningful approval increase from current levels. Approval ratings typically respond to economic data releases, policy announcements, and major news events. The resolution will depend on RealClearPolitics' aggregated polling methodology and the timing of new surveys. Contract pricing reflects uncertainty about near-term approval trajectory, with total trading volume concentrated in the 39-40 band.

### Key factors

- Current market consensus clusters approval outcomes between 39.0-40.4, placing 41.1-41.3 in the upper tail of expected outcomes
- The 41.1-41.3 contract is priced at 24%, comparable to the 39.3-39.5 band (22%), suggesting moderate tail-risk valuation rather than outlier status
- RealClearPolitics approval aggregate is updated regularly as new surveys release; resolution depends on polling frequency and timing of the measurement window
- Approval movements of 1+ points typically require significant economic or political shocks; incremental policy effects rarely produce sustained 0.2-point band shifts
- Volume concentration in 39-40 ranges ($2.3M across top three contracts) versus lower volume in higher approval bands suggests limited conviction in approval gains

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/aprpotus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=aprpotus

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.