# Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arbroathby
Updated: 2026-06-20T01:20:20.392Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-18

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 15¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-labour-win-the-2026-arbroath-broughty-ferry-b-kalshi-kxarbroathby-26jun18-lab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 7 |
| 2026-06-08 | 4 |
| 2026-06-13 | 2 |
| 2026-06-16 | 3 |
| 2026-06-18 | 15 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Labour +12pp 3→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Labour will win the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election scheduled for 2026. The 32% assessment sits between the SNP's dominant position at 84% and the Conservatives' minimal 3% chance, suggesting Labour is viewed as a distant second contender in what remains an SNP-favored seat. The probability would shift based on demographic changes, campaigning effectiveness, and whether Labour can consolidate anti-SNP votes in a historically competitive region. The by-election itself—triggered by an incumbent departure or vacancy—represents the key moment when actual voting patterns will clarify whether market expectations align with voter behavior. Until the contest occurs, the probability reflects current polling, constituency composition, and historical voting trends rather than confirmed outcomes.

### Key factors

- SNP currently holds 84% implied probability, suggesting this is treated as SNP's seat to lose under baseline conditions
- Labour's 32% probability positions it as the main challenger, well ahead of Conservative 3%, indicating vote-splitting dynamics favor SNP retention
- Historical voting in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry and recent Scottish electoral trends will determine whether SNP's structural advantage persists
- Campaign events, candidate quality, and local issues emerging between now and election day could shift vote distributions materially
- By-election timing and turnout composition—particularly whether it attracts core SNP voters or energizes Labour supporters—will be the primary outcome determinant

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arbroathby
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=arbroathby
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.