# Will Arkansas broiler production for 2026 be above 7.8 billion pounds

> Above 7.6 billion pounds leads at 94%, runner-up 83% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arbroiler
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:02.134Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 7.6 billion pounds at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 7.8 billion pounds at 83%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7.6 billion pounds | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-broiler-production-for-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxarbroiler-27apr30-t7.6 |
| Above 7.8 billion pounds | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-broiler-production-for-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxarbroiler-27apr30-t7.8 |
| Above 8.0 billion pounds | 43¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-broiler-production-for-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxarbroiler-27apr30-t8.0 |
| Above 8.2 billion pounds | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-broiler-production-for-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxarbroiler-27apr30-t8.2 |
| Above 8.4 billion pounds | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arkansas-broiler-production-for-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxarbroiler-27apr30-t8.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 7.6 billion pounds | Above 7.8 billion pounds | Above 8.0 billion pounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 92 | 82 | 58 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — | 49 |
| 2026-09-07 | — | — | 44 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 82% probability that Arkansas broiler production in 2026 will exceed 7.8 billion pounds. This represents a relatively high confidence outcome for above-average production, though with meaningful uncertainty remaining about whether the state reaches even higher thresholds. Arkansas broiler output depends primarily on flock size, feed availability, and disease dynamics throughout the year. Production typically contracts during disease outbreaks or feed supply disruptions, while stable operational conditions support growth. The 2026 final production figures will be released by the USDA in early 2027, which will definitively resolve this contract. Current pricing suggests traders expect Arkansas to comfortably clear 7.6 billion pounds but face meaningful headwinds reaching 8.0+ billion. The narrow gap between 82% and 57% probabilities indicates uncertainty concentrates around the 7.8-8.0 billion pound range.

### Key factors

- Arkansas maintained approximately 7.6 billion pounds of broiler production in recent years; achieving 7.8+ billion requires 2-3% year-over-year growth
- Avian influenza outbreaks in commercial flocks would directly reduce production capacity; disease-free operations are priced into current market expectations
- Feed cost stability and grain availability throughout 2026 affect profitability and producer willingness to maintain or expand flock sizes
- The probability ladder (94% > 7.6B, 82% > 7.8B, 57% > 8.0B) reflects declining confidence in progressively higher production bands
- USDA will publish final 2026 Arkansas broiler production data in January-February 2027, providing definitive contract resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arbroiler
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=arbroiler

## License

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