# Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch — $200M

> $50M leads at 84%, runner-up 60% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.628Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 84%
- Runner-up: $100M at 60%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x4229acb9472e339f7980b6ec3bbc2e79edd7dc8e9de56e8c700811dea3d2bafa |
| $100M | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xe776a0637704c4afdc6ad5eeda3589567c338897db8adeb547dc3adee58e034d |
| $300M | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xb97711083adb39b218473a5b5c564944e0841a3cb566f5d3fe1bbddd7e5d90a6 |
| $200M | 46¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xe8895707ed4f70e213b9dfb2b30b95e1820168ce716b53fa1fee613f839c877e |
| $1B | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xf82e5f2bc5279fa6e48aabf377a35410ba05e39c8b2bbeda88e4d8ee87e0aba4 |
| $800M | 18¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xa007336ca90e34b9d0809e3206622317adaf77a41f160f5f674ea3b27fe3d642 |
| $500M | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xfa22e8545ef8037416035dca24f9ea07e7be0485213315b264eecb6cc10a51a0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $300M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | 44 | 37 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 85 | 59 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 87 | 71 | 53 |
| 2026-05-08 | 87 | 60 | 47 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $100M −12pp 70→58¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $300M −10pp 55→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $300M +3pp 50→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · $800M +3pp 17→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects an 86% probability that Arcium's fully diluted valuation will exceed $200 million one day after its launch. The current price is driven by relatively strong confidence in a modest valuation threshold, supported by comparable recent launches and market appetite for infrastructure projects. Uncertainty could shift based on actual token release mechanics, initial exchange listings, and real-time price discovery on launch day. The primary driver of resolution will be the token's opening price and circulating supply calculations immediately following launch announcement. Historical precedent from similar protocol launches and current market conditions for blockchain infrastructure are the key factors determining whether the $200M floor is met versus exceeded or missed.

### Key factors

- Token supply structure and lock-up schedules will directly determine initial circulating FDV calculations used for market resolution
- Exchange listing decisions and venues for launch trading will impact price discovery speed and volume available for valuation establishment
- Comparison to recent protocol launches with similar positioning (infrastructure/tooling focus) shows FDV ranges of $150M–$600M one day post-launch
- Market conditions for blockchain infrastructure tokens on launch date—broader sentiment and capital availability in the sector—will influence demand
- Definition of 'one day after launch' and which price/supply snapshot constitutes official valuation will determine tie-breaking scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=arcium-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

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