# Argentina vs. Algeria

> Argentina leads at 70%, runner-up 20% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentina-vs-algeria
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.113Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Argentina at 70%
- Runner-up: Draw (Argentina vs. Algeria) at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $98

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 70¢ | +1pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-algeria-argentina-polymarket-0x2a7a6ab8f4984f1ae82eacd7fb408832a50e63162ac6b98fff1fe094b8e9d3b5 |
| Draw (Argentina vs. Algeria) | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-algeria-draw-argentina-vs-algeria-polymarket-0x353bfdea6f2cae034f1cef73064086e6c904d60d58f96c69644789b510ba862f |
| Algeria | 10¢ | +1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-algeria-algeria-polymarket-0xc4dd64ba5844f4a50df03fc7dc37af5decf637aacb8527fd42ccb1fbc6068f5e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Argentina | Draw (Argentina vs. Algeria) | Algeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 69 | 19 | 10 |
| 2026-05-01 | 68 | 19 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 70 | 20 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 71 | 20 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 69 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | — | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Algeria will win an upcoming match against Argentina. The current price sits slightly below Polymarket's 36% level, with Kalshi showing stronger odds for Argentina at 69%. The market is pricing in Argentina as favorites given their stronger recent form and higher FIFA rankings, while Algeria's probability has been depressed despite regional strength. The resolution depends on team composition, recent injuries, and match conditions on the scheduled date. Movement in this probability will likely follow official team roster announcements and any significant personnel changes in the days before kickoff. This represents a relatively competitive matchup where the 35% implies meaningful uncertainty rather than a clear-cut outcome.

### Key factors

- Argentina's recent competitive record and FIFA ranking significantly favor them, reflected in the 70¢ contract price versus 10¢ for Algeria
- Polymarket prices Algeria 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi, suggesting different trader bases may be evaluating injury reports or team form differently
- Low absolute trading volume on Algeria contracts ($349 24h) indicates limited market depth, making prices potentially more volatile to new information
- The draw contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, suggesting roughly 20% of probability mass assigned to non-decisive outcomes
- Scheduled match date and official team announcements will materially shift odds as closer information becomes available

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentina-vs-algeria
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=argentina-vs-algeria

## License

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