# Argentina vs. Austria

> Argentina leads at 62%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentina-vs-austria
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.961Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Leader: Argentina at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (Argentina vs. Austria) at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 62¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-austria-argentina-polymarket-0x5bdcf0fd010eba1a55a0f3de9be6612fc72038279a734e994ce2e34664a3cfe4 |
| Draw (Argentina vs. Austria) | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-austria-draw-argentina-vs-austria-polymarket-0xac111edf9fdf6fab06525d9a0216c16a2e54483c0df7ac58f1a83e9fa53b0c72 |
| Austria | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/argentina-vs-austria-austria-polymarket-0x73b3d2eee243a7f5438e12b72e2f33da013b0f3963302ee62bbc9198df121515 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Argentina | Draw (Argentina vs. Austria) | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 60 | — | 20 |
| 2026-05-01 | 61 | 27 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 59 | 26 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 61 | 24 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 25 | 19 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Argentina +4pp 59→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Austria +3pp 19→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Austria −3pp 23→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects the aggregated market assessment that Argentina will defeat Austria in an upcoming match. The cross-venue gap of 6 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing higher than Kalshi, suggests some disagreement about Austria's competitive position relative to Argentina. Key drivers include each team's current form, head-to-head historical matchups, and squad composition. The probability will sharpen closer to match kickoff as additional team news, injury reports, and betting activity flow into markets. Most movement will likely occur in the final 24-48 hours before the match, when late-arriving information becomes available and casual bettors enter the market.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts are pricing Austria higher (73¢ on Austria vs. Jordan) compared to Kalshi's implied 30% for Argentina, indicating venue-specific differences in Austria's assessment
- Volume concentration shows highest activity on Argentina-Algeria matchups ($349 24h vol), not Argentina-Austria, suggesting uncertainty about which match is being priced
- Austria's 73¢ contract suggests markets currently assess Austria as a meaningful competitive threat, contradicting a blowout Argentina favorite scenario
- The 6 percentage point spread between venues exceeds typical variance, indicating either different information sets or one venue experiencing less informed pricing
- Historical Argentine success and current tournament trajectory versus Austria's recent performance represent the fundamental tension underlying the 35% level

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentina-vs-austria
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=argentina-vs-austria

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.