# Who will win the next Argentine presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentinapres
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.287Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-30

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Kicillof | 37¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-axel-kicillof-win-the-next-argentine-presiden-kalshi-kxargentinapres-27-akic |
| Javier Milei | 57¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-argentine-presidential-elect-kalshi-kxargentinapres-27-jmil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 58 |
| 2026-06-15 | 56 |
| 2026-06-19 | 46 |
| 2026-06-25 | 58 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Javier Milei +4pp 54→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Javier Milei −3pp 56→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the aggregated market expectation that a specific candidate will win Argentina's next presidential election, currently priced at 73% for the leading outcome. Argentine presidential elections typically occur every four years, with the most recent general election in 2023. The high probability of the current leader reflects either consensus around their electability or strong recent polling momentum, while the runner-up at 64% suggests meaningful uncertainty about the final outcome. Key drivers of movement would include economic conditions in Argentina, polling data releases, campaign developments, and any major political shifts. The most significant catalysts would be official campaign announcements, major economic data (inflation, employment), or shifts in coalition dynamics ahead of the next scheduled election cycle.

### Key factors

- The 73% probability reflects a dominant but not overwhelming favorite—the runner-up at 64% shows the market prices meaningful uncertainty
- Trading volume on Kalshi contracts shows active participation, with Newsom and Vance contracts (16¢ and 18¢) generating the highest 24-hour volume, suggesting these are primary focal points for traders
- The large spread between the leading candidate (73%) and other options indicates concentration of probability mass rather than a fragmented field
- Contract pricing patterns will shift with published polling data, economic indicators, and official candidate announcements
- The election timing (typically every four years from the 2023 cycle) establishes a concrete resolution date that constrains probability adjustments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/argentinapres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=argentinapres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.