# Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 19 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arrest
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.423Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $925

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Fauci | 16¢ | −1pp | $376 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-ant-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-afau |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 21¢ | +1pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/will-jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-be-arrested-before-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-jzap |
| John Brennan | 43¢ | ±0 | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-brennan-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-john-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-jbre |
| Hillary Clinton | 7¢ | ±0 | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-hillary-clinton-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-h-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-hclin |
| Gavin Newsom | 11¢ | ±0 | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-gavi-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-gnew |
| Barack Obama | 7¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-bara-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-bom |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-mahmoud-khalil-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-ma-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-mkha |
| Loretta Lynch | 9¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-loretta-lynch-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-lor-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-llyn |
| Tom Homan | 8¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-homan-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-tom-hom-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-thom |
| Adam Schiff | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-schiff-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-adam-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-asch |
| Bill Clinton | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-clinton-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-bill-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-bclin |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-arrested-before-jan-202-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-bnet |
| Candace Owens | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-candace-owens-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-can-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-cowe |
| Joe Biden | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-biden-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-joe-bid-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-jbid |
| James Clapper | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-clapper-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-jam-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-jcla |
| John Kerry | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-kerry-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-john-k-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-jker |
| Kash Patel | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-kash-p-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-kpat |
| Lisa Cook | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-cook-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-lisa-co-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-lcoo |
| Lee Jae Myung | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lee-jae-myung-be-arrested-before-jan-2027-lee-kalshi-kxarrest-27jan-ljae |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 24 |
| 2026-06-12 | 19 |
| 2026-06-19 | 16 |
| 2026-06-25 | 17 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Anthony Fauci +4pp 8→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Anthony Fauci +4pp 14→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Gavin Newsom +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Lee Jae Myung +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Anthony Fauci +3pp 12→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Brandon Johnson, the Mayor of Chicago, will be arrested before January 2027. The 16% probability reflects a combination of ongoing political scrutiny and legal proceedings. The main factors driving this level include current federal investigations and prosecutorial priorities, weighted against the absence of formal charges to date. Any significant developments in ongoing cases or new investigations could shift the probability substantially. The most concrete upcoming milestone would be any announced indictments or major legal filings, which typically receive immediate market reaction. Political dynamics and enforcement priorities at both state and federal levels remain key variables affecting the resolution of this contract.

### Key factors

- No formal criminal charges against Brandon Johnson have been filed as of May 2026, placing an arrest before January 2027 approximately 8 months away
- Federal investigations and prosecutorial activities in Chicago politics have historically moved at varying speeds, with some cases resolved in under a year while others extend years beyond indictment
- The current probability of 16% sits substantially lower than Letitia James (65%) and John Brennan (56%), suggesting market participants assess Johnson's legal exposure as materially lower than certain other political figures
- Media reporting on active investigations or legal developments would be the primary catalyst for significant probability shifts in either direction
- Prior arrests or indictments in Illinois politics serve as reference points for how quickly prosecutorial action can move from investigation to formal charges

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/arrest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=arrest

## License

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