# Will the lot sold price of the La Séance du matin by Henri Matisse on Sotheby's be above $20000000 during the live auction beginning May 19, 07:00 PM EDT — Above $20M

> Above $2.75M leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/art
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.468Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.75M at 96%
- Runner-up: Above $2.5M at 95%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $695

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.75M | 96¢ | +1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-woman-in-a-grey-swe-kalshi-kxart-wom26-2750000 |
| Above $2.5M | 95¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-woman-in-a-grey-swe-kalshi-kxart-wom26-2500000 |
| Above $24M | 94¢ | −1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-24000000 |
| Above $1.25M | 94¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-lydia-tude-pour-por-kalshi-kxart-lyd26-1250000 |
| Above $14M | 93¢ | +3pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-dana-by-egon-schiel-kalshi-kxart-dan26-14000000 |
| Above $1.5M | 92¢ | +1pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-lydia-tude-pour-por-kalshi-kxart-lyd26-1500000 |
| Above $26M | 91¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-26000000 |
| Above $3M | 90¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-woman-in-a-grey-swe-kalshi-kxart-wom26-3000000 |
| Above $30M | 86¢ | −5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-30000000 |
| Above $3.75M | 85¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-woman-in-a-grey-swe-kalshi-kxart-wom26-3750000 |
| Above $32M | 82¢ | +1pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-32000000 |
| Above $36M | 69¢ | +7pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-36000000 |
| Above $20M | 66¢ | +5pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-homme-la-pipe-le-no-kalshi-kxart-hom26-20000000 |
| Above $32M | 51¢ | +2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-petite-danseuse-de-kalshi-kxart-peti26-32000000 |
| Above $6M | 50¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-portrait-de-paul-hu-kalshi-kxart-port26-6000000 |
| Above $6.2M | 49¢ | +6pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-portrait-de-paul-hu-kalshi-kxart-port26-6200000 |
| Above $40M | 46¢ | +1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-bildnis-gertrud-loe-kalshi-kxart-bild26-40000000 |
| Above $16M | 40¢ | +5pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-two-studies-for-sel-kalshi-kxart-two26-16000000 |
| Above $24M | 21¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-homme-la-pipe-le-no-kalshi-kxart-hom26-24000000 |
| Above $24M | 21¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-lot-sold-price-of-the-dana-by-egon-schiel-kalshi-kxart-dan26-24000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.75M | Above $2.5M | Above $24M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 56 | 66 | 77 |
| 2026-05-19 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-05-20 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-05-26 | 95 | 96 | 92 |
| 2026-05-27 | 96 | 94 | 92 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 94 | 91 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Above $14M +50pp 43→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Above $2.5M +30pp 66→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Above $24M −24pp 39→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above $24M +20pp 18→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above $24M −20pp 44→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The probability reflects market confidence that Matisse's 'La Séance du matin' will sell for at least $20 million at the May 19 Sotheby's auction. Current trading at 77% suggests strong but not overwhelming conviction. The high probability is anchored by comparable Matisse works' recent performance and pre-auction estimates, though actual hammer prices depend on bidder competition in the room. The May 19 auction itself, beginning at 7:00 PM EDT, will definitively resolve the outcome. Related Van Gogh contract pricing at 95% indicates different expectations for competing lots in the same sale.

### Key factors

- Pre-auction Sotheby's estimate range and reserve price for the lot, if publicly disclosed
- Historical sales prices for Henri Matisse works from similar periods and size at major auction houses in the past 24 months
- Liquidity and bid volume on auction eve, reflected in whether estimate-driven price guidance is maintained or revised
- Presence and catalog positioning of competing major impressionist works in the same sale that might draw buyer capital
- Currency and market conditions on May 19 that could affect international bidder participation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/art
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=art

## License

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