# Will Rihanna have more Worldwide Streams than Sabrina Carpenter on Luminate during the April 24 - April 30, 2026 time period

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/artistvs
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:06:03.218Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than  $1.2 trillion | 43¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-1200-billion-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-1200 |
| More than $900 Billion | 81¢ | +1pp | $827 | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-900-billion-d-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-900 |
| Target Streams: 236,885,880 | 25¢ | +4pp | $486 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-above-236885880-streams-on-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-beilish26may07-236.9m |
| Target Streams: 253,573,275 | 17¢ | +2pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-have-above-253573275-streams-on-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-grande26may07-253.6m |
| More than $1.4 trillion | 21¢ | −5pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-1400-billion-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-1400 |
| Target Streams: 532,914,101 | 8¢ | +3pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-jackson-have-above-532914101-streams-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-popking26may07-532.9m |
| Target Streams: 496,244,101 | 8¢ | +3pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-have-above-496244101-streams-on-luminat-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-drake26may07-496.2m |
| Target Streams: 232,198,523 | 10¢ | +1pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-lady-gaga-have-above-232198523-streams-on-lum-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-gaga26may07-232.2m |
| Lionel Messi | 46¢ | −2pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-or-cristiano-ronaldo-have-more-g-kalshi-kxwcmessironaldo-26lmescron-lmes |
| Target Streams: 148,644,085 | 5¢ | −17pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-have-above-148644085-streams-on-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-tscott26may07-148.6m |
| More than  $1.1 trillion | 56¢ | −1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-1100-billion-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-1100 |
| Target Streams: 109,039,290 | 6¢ | — | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-j-cole-have-above-109039290-streams-on-lumina-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-cole26may07-109.0m |
| Target Streams: 398,485,183 | 6¢ | — | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-have-above-398485183-streams-on-lu-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-bmars26may07-398.5m |
| Above 264M | 69¢ | — | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-have-264000000-streams-on-luminate-kalshi-kxartiststreams-yeezy26may07-264.0m |
| Above 543M | 64¢ | −4pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-bts-have-543000000-streams-on-luminate-during-kalshi-kxartiststreams-bts26may07-543.0m |
| More than $1 trillion | 72¢ | ±0 | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-musk-have-a-net-worth-more-than-1000-billion-kalshi-kxmuskwealth-27-1000 |
| Above 232M | 9¢ | +4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-232000000-streams-on-lumin-kalshi-kxartiststreams-beilish26may07-232.0m |
| Target Streams: 117,305,346 | 5¢ | −45pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-beatles-have-above-117305346-streams-on-l-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-beatles26may07-117.3m |
| Above 104M | 45¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-j-cole-have-104000000-streams-on-luminate-dur-kalshi-kxartiststreams-cole26may07-104.0m |
| Above 154M | 95¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-have-154000000-streams-on-lumina-kalshi-kxartiststreams-tscott26may07-154.0m |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 55 |
| 2026-04-19 | 73 |
| 2026-04-26 | 52 |
| 2026-05-03 | 18 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Target Streams: 117,305,346 −45pp 49→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Target Streams: 148,644,085 −17pp 21→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · More than $1 trillion −17pp 71→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · More than $1 trillion +17pp 54→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · More than $1.4 trillion −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/artistvs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=artistvs

## License

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